Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: KTS Weszlo vs Warta Sieradz

Team pages: KTS Weszlo · Warta Sieradz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

KTS Weszlo1.73

Warta Sieradz1.55

1X2

41% 25% 34%

KTS Weszlo Draw Warta Sieradz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

KTS Weszlo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDLWWL

Warta Sieradz 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLWWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KTS Weszlo 1540 · Warta Sieradz 1505

	KTS Weszlo	Draw	Warta Sieradz
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KTS Weszlo	Warta Sieradz
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.90 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	4.00 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +4’	1.65	3.90	4.00
15:27 +4’	2.20▲	3.60▼	2.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KTS Weszlo	Warta Sieradz
Wigry Suwalki	1-4 L	1-3 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	3-2 W	1-1 D
Widzew Lodz II	2-0 W	1-0 W
Olimpia Zambrow	1-3 L	2-2 D
Polonia Lidzbark	1-1 D	2-1 W
Olimpia Elblag	2-1 W	4-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-0 W	1-2 L
Zabkovia Zabki	2-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KTS Weszlo

WDWWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
18/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
11/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
03/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	3	6	L
26/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
05/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
29/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	7	4	D
23/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	1	5	W

Warta Sieradz

LLWWDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
17/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
09/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KTS Weszlo vs Warta Sieradz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KTS Weszlo win (41%). Probabilities: KTS Weszlo 41%, draw 25%, Warta Sieradz 34%.

How many goals are expected in KTS Weszlo vs Warta Sieradz?

The model expects 3.29 goals (KTS Weszlo 1.73 · Warta Sieradz 1.55), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KTS Weszlo vs Warta Sieradz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.