Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 14:30

Prediction: Korona Kielce II vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Team pages: Korona Kielce II · Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Korona Kielce II1.6

Podlasie Biala Podlaska1.4

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Korona Kielce II Draw Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Korona Kielce II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLDLWW

Podlasie Biala Podlaska 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWLLD

Head-to-head

Korona Kielce II 0–3–3 Podlasie Biala Podlaska (6 last)

Podlasie Biala Podlaska1-1Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II2-2Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Korona Kielce II0-3Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska3-0Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II1-2Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska1-1Korona Kielce II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Korona Kielce II 1470 · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1486

	Korona Kielce II	Draw	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Podlasie Biala Podlaska: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Korona Kielce II	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	2.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +13’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Korona Kielce II 0–3–3 Podlasie Biala Podlaska

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-1 HT 0-1	Korona Kielce II
09/08/25 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	2-2 HT 2-0	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
08/03/25 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	0-3 HT 0-2	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
17/08/24 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	3-0 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce II
25/03/23 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	1-2 HT 0-2	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
20/08/22 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-1 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Korona Kielce II	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-1 W	0-2 L
Wieczysta Krakow II	1-0 W	2-1 W
Wisloka Debica	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2-2 D	0-0 D
JKS Jaroslaw	2-6 L	0-2 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4-1 W	2-1 W
Czarni Polaniec	3-4 L	2-0 W
Hetman Zamosc	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Korona Kielce II

LLDLWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	10	2	W
19/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
05/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-3	2-6	5	7	L
29/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-1	3-4	2	5	L
19/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
14/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	2-3	7	5	L
08/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

Podlasie Biala Podlaska

DWWLDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
26/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	3	9	W
06/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
28/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Korona Kielce II vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Korona Kielce II win (41%). Probabilities: Korona Kielce II 41%, draw 26%, Podlasie Biala Podlaska 33%.

How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce II vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

The model expects 3 goals (Korona Kielce II 1.6 · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Korona Kielce II vs Podlasie Biala Podlaska?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.