Football · Poland III Liga · 09/10, 18:30

Prediction: Wislanie Jaskowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Team pages: Wislanie Jaskowice · Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Wislanie Jaskowice1.77

Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.08

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Wislanie Jaskowice Draw Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wislanie Jaskowice 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLWDLL

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDWLL

Head-to-head

Wislanie Jaskowice 3–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg (6 last)

Wislanie Jaskowice2-1Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1-3Wislanie Jaskowice
Siarka Tarnobrzeg9-0Wislanie Jaskowice
Wislanie Jaskowice3-1Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg2-1Wislanie Jaskowice
Wislanie Jaskowice0-1Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wislanie Jaskowice 1502 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1491

	Wislanie Jaskowice	Draw	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wislanie Jaskowice	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.5	1.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.4	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:17 +3’	1.67	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wislanie Jaskowice 3–0–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/11/25 Poland III Liga	Wislanie Jaskowice	2-1 HT 0-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1-3 HT 0-1	Wislanie Jaskowice
10/05/25 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	9-0 HT 3-0	Wislanie Jaskowice
09/10/24 Poland III Liga	Wislanie Jaskowice	3-1 HT 1-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
24/03/24 Poland III Liga	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-1 HT 0-0	Wislanie Jaskowice
26/08/23 Poland III Liga	Wislanie Jaskowice	0-1 HT 0-0	Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wislanie Jaskowice	Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Wieczysta Krakow II	0-1 L	2-0 W
Wisloka Debica	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	1-1 D	0-2 L
JKS Jaroslaw	3-1 W	1-3 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	1-2 L	4-1 W
Czarni Polaniec	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Siarka Tarnobrzeg (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wislanie Jaskowice

WWDWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	10	10	L
25/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
20/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
12/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	2	5	W
06/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	8	8	L
28/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
22/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	10	7	D
15/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	3	9	W
08/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

LWLLWWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	5	7	L
19/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
19/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
15/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	4-1	–	–	W
08/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wislanie Jaskowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wislanie Jaskowice win (53%). Probabilities: Wislanie Jaskowice 53%, draw 24%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 23%.

How many goals are expected in Wislanie Jaskowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Wislanie Jaskowice 1.77 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.08), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wislanie Jaskowice vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.