Football · Poland III Liga · 10/10, 12:00

Prediction: Wisla Krakow II vs JKS Jaroslaw

Team pages: Wisla Krakow II · JKS Jaroslaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Wisla Krakow II1.82

JKS Jaroslaw1.63

1X2

41% 25% 34%

Wisla Krakow II Draw JKS Jaroslaw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Krakow II 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLLDDL

JKS Jaroslaw 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Krakow II 1467 · JKS Jaroslaw 1511

	Wisla Krakow II	Draw	JKS Jaroslaw
Our model	42%	24%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JKS Jaroslaw (rating 1467 vs 1511).
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Krakow II	JKS Jaroslaw
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	2.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.3	2.9 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +5’	2.20	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	11	8	3	0	18	5	27
2	Wisloka Debica	11	7	1	3	16	13	22
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	11	5	5	1	16	9	20
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	11	6	2	3	27	21	20
5	Czarni Polaniec	11	6	2	3	18	16	20
6	JKS Jaroslaw	11	5	2	4	27	20	17
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	11	5	2	4	15	11	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	11	3	5	3	20	20	14
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	11	4	2	5	14	15	14
10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	11	4	2	5	17	21	14
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	11	2	7	2	12	12	13
12	Wisla Krakow II	11	3	4	4	13	16	13
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	11	3	3	5	10	13	12
14	Korona Kielce II	11	3	2	6	23	27	11
15	Star Starachowice	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	11	3	2	6	10	14	11
17	Moravia Morawica	11	2	2	7	13	22	8
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	11	2	1	8	11	21	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Krakow II	JKS Jaroslaw
Naprzod Jedrzejow	0-0 D	1-3 L
Moravia Morawica	1-0 W	2-2 D
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-1 D	5-2 W
Wislanie Jaskowice	1-2 L	1-3 L
Korona Kielce II	2-1 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wisla Krakow II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Krakow II

WLDWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	13	2	L
25/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	3-3	–	–	D
12/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
05/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
30/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
22/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	12	9	L
08/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

JKS Jaroslaw

LLWWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	–	–	L
27/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	2-2	5-2	11	5	W
12/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-3	1-3	5	5	L
05/09	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	3-1	6-2	6	7	W
29/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
22/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
15/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	1-3	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Krakow II vs JKS Jaroslaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Krakow II win (41%). Probabilities: Wisla Krakow II 41%, draw 25%, JKS Jaroslaw 34%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow II vs JKS Jaroslaw?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Wisla Krakow II 1.82 · JKS Jaroslaw 1.63), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow II vs JKS Jaroslaw?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.