Football · Poland III Liga · 02/10, 17:30

Prediction: Wisloka Debica vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Team pages: Wisloka Debica · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Wisloka Debica1.8

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1.19

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Wisloka Debica Draw Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisloka Debica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLWWWW

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWLWLL

Head-to-head

Wisloka Debica 3–1–1 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow (5 last)

Wisloka Debica1-1Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1-2Wisloka Debica
Wisloka Debica1-0Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow3-0Wisloka Debica
Wisloka Debica4-1Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisloka Debica 1547 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1429

	Wisloka Debica	Draw	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wisloka Debica (rating 1547 vs 1429).
H2H favours Wisloka Debica: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisloka Debica	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +8’	1.75	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisloka Debica 3–1–1 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Wisloka Debica	1-1 HT 0-1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
18/04/26 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-2 HT 1-1	Wisloka Debica
26/09/25 Poland III Liga	Wisloka Debica	1-0 HT 0-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
22/03/25 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3-0 HT 3-0	Wisloka Debica
24/08/24 Poland III Liga	Wisloka Debica	4-1 HT 0-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisloka Debica	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Chelmianka Chelm	1-2 L	0-1 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2-1 W	0-1 L
JKS Jaroslaw	3-1 W	2-5 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Wisloka Debica (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisloka Debica

DWWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
19/09	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
13/09	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	2	2	W
06/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
29/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
19/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
08/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
02/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

LLLDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
12/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
05/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
23/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
19/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
08/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
01/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisloka Debica vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisloka Debica win (51%). Probabilities: Wisloka Debica 51%, draw 24%, Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 25%.

How many goals are expected in Wisloka Debica vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Wisloka Debica 1.8 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisloka Debica vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.