Football · Poland III Liga · 01/10, 18:00

Prediction: Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Star Starachowice

Team pages: Podlasie Biala Podlaska · Star Starachowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Podlasie Biala Podlaska1.4

Star Starachowice1.1

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Podlasie Biala Podlaska Draw Star Starachowice

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Podlasie Biala Podlaska 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLWLL

Star Starachowice 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLDLDW

Head-to-head

Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1–3–2 Star Starachowice (6 last)

Star Starachowice1-1Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska2-1Star Starachowice
Podlasie Biala Podlaska1-1Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-0Podlasie Biala Podlaska
Podlasie Biala Podlaska0-3Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-1Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1488 · Star Starachowice 1472

	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	Draw	Star Starachowice
Our model	42%	29%	28%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Star Starachowice: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	Star Starachowice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	3.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.11 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.97

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +11’	2.00	3.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +52’	2.11	3.18	2.96
08:40 +24’	2.13▲	3.13▼	2.99▲
14:08	2.11▼	3.17▲	2.97▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1–3–2 Star Starachowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-1 HT 0-1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
08/11/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2-1 HT 2-1	Star Starachowice
12/04/25 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-1 HT 1-0	Star Starachowice
14/09/24 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-0 HT 0-0	Podlasie Biala Podlaska
10/05/24 Poland III Liga	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0-3 HT 0-1	Star Starachowice
14/10/23 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-1 HT 1-0	Podlasie Biala Podlaska

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	10	8	2	0	16	3	26
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	10	5	4	1	15	8	19
3	Czarni Polaniec	10	6	1	3	17	15	19
4	Wisloka Debica	10	6	1	3	14	12	19
5	JKS Jaroslaw	10	5	2	3	26	17	17
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	10	5	2	3	15	10	17
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	10	5	2	3	24	20	17
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	10	4	2	4	13	13	14
9	Hetman Zamosc	10	3	4	3	18	18	13
10	Wisla Krakow II	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	10	2	6	2	10	10	12
12	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	10	3	2	5	8	11	11
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	10	3	2	5	14	21	11
14	Star Starachowice	10	2	4	4	11	15	10
15	Korona Kielce II	10	2	2	6	21	26	8
16	Wieczysta Krakow II	10	2	2	6	9	14	8
17	Moravia Morawica	10	2	1	7	11	20	7
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	10	2	1	7	10	19	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	Star Starachowice
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0-2 L	4-1 W
Wieczysta Krakow II	2-1 W	0-0 D
Wisloka Debica	0-1 L	2-3 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	0-0 D
JKS Jaroslaw	0-2 L	0-3 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2-1 W	1-1 D
Czarni Polaniec	2-0 W	2-0 W
Hetman Zamosc	1-1 D	0-3 L
KSZO Ostrowiec	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Podlasie Biala Podlaska (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Podlasie Biala Podlaska

LDWWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	3	9	W
06/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
28/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
02/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Star Starachowice

LDLWDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
19/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
22/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
09/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
01/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Star Starachowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Podlasie Biala Podlaska win (44%). Probabilities: Podlasie Biala Podlaska 44%, draw 26%, Star Starachowice 30%.

How many goals are expected in Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Star Starachowice?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1.4 · Star Starachowice 1.1), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Star Starachowice?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.