Football · Poland III Liga · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Wisla Krakow II vs Chelmianka Chelm

Team pages: Wisla Krakow II · Chelmianka Chelm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Wisla Krakow II1.31

Chelmianka Chelm1.6

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Wisla Krakow II Draw Chelmianka Chelm

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Krakow II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLDWD

Chelmianka Chelm 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Wisla Krakow II 0–1–3 Chelmianka Chelm (4 last)

Chelmianka Chelm2-1Wisla Krakow II
Wisla Krakow II2-4Chelmianka Chelm
Chelmianka Chelm1-1Wisla Krakow II
Wisla Krakow II0-1Chelmianka Chelm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Krakow II 1555 · Chelmianka Chelm 1616

	Wisla Krakow II	Draw	Chelmianka Chelm
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmianka Chelm (rating 1555 vs 1616).
H2H favours Chelmianka Chelm: 3-1-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Krakow II	Chelmianka Chelm
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.9 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +27’	2.88	3.75	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Krakow II 0–1–3 Chelmianka Chelm

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	2-1 HT 1-0	Wisla Krakow II
16/08/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Krakow II	2-4 HT 0-2	Chelmianka Chelm
21/03/25 Poland III Liga	Chelmianka Chelm	1-1 HT 1-1	Wisla Krakow II
24/08/24 Poland III Liga	Wisla Krakow II	0-1 HT 0-1	Chelmianka Chelm

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	6	6	0	0	11	1	18
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Czarni Polaniec	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Wisla Krakow II	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	JKS Jaroslaw	6	3	1	2	12	8	10
7	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
8	Wieczysta Krakow II	6	2	1	3	8	9	7
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
10	Wisloka Debica	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
11	Naprzod Jedrzejow	6	2	1	3	9	13	7
12	Hetman Zamosc	6	1	3	2	9	9	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	6	1	3	2	6	7	6
14	Moravia Morawica	6	2	0	4	6	12	6
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
16	Star Starachowice	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
17	Korona Kielce II	6	1	1	4	16	17	4
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	6	1	1	4	6	9	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Krakow II	Chelmianka Chelm
Naprzod Jedrzejow	0-0 D	2-0 W
Moravia Morawica	1-0 W	3-0 W
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-1 D	1-0 W
Cracovia Krakow II	3-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmianka Chelm (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Krakow II

WWWWWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
22/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	12	9	L
08/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	9	2	W
30/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
23/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	11	4	W
16/05	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	8	W

Chelmianka Chelm

WDWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	4	4	W
08/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-3	6	5	D
13/05	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Krakow II vs Chelmianka Chelm?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmianka Chelm win (44%). Probabilities: Wisla Krakow II 31%, draw 25%, Chelmianka Chelm 44%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow II vs Chelmianka Chelm?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Wisla Krakow II 1.31 · Chelmianka Chelm 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow II vs Chelmianka Chelm?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.