Football · Poland III Liga · 15/08, 17:00

Prediction: Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Team pages: Naprzod Jedrzejow · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Naprzod Jedrzejow1.3

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1.42

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Naprzod Jedrzejow Draw Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Naprzod Jedrzejow 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWDLL

Head-to-head

Naprzod Jedrzejow 1–1 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow (2 last)

Naprzod Jedrzejow1-0Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1-0Naprzod Jedrzejow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naprzod Jedrzejow 1441 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1477

	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Draw	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Our model	33%	28%	39%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.41 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:01 +5’	2.60	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:51	2.37	3.48	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naprzod Jedrzejow 1–0–1 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Poland III Liga	Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-0 HT 0-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
06/09/25 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-0 HT 1-0	Naprzod Jedrzejow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
3	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
5	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
6	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
7	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Korona Kielce II	5-4 W	1-3 L
Chelmianka Chelm	0-2 L	0-1 L
Swidniczanka Swidnik	3-2 W	3-0 W
Star Starachowice	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Sokol Lubaczow (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Naprzod Jedrzejow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	3-3	5-4	6	6	W
30/05	Stal Krasnik Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
23/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
13/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
26/04	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/04	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	9	L

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

DLLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
01/08	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/07	Wisloka Debica Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
29/05	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
23/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
16/05	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
13/05	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	8	0	W
09/05	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	4	8	L
03/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	9	4	L
26/04	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pogon Sokol Lubaczow win (39%). Probabilities: Naprzod Jedrzejow 34%, draw 27%, Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 39%.

How many goals are expected in Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Naprzod Jedrzejow 1.3 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1.42), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.