Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 11:00

Prediction: Korona Kielce II vs Czarni Polaniec

Team pages: Korona Kielce II · Czarni Polaniec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Korona Kielce II1.93

Czarni Polaniec1.61

1X2

45% 24% 32%

Korona Kielce II Draw Czarni Polaniec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Korona Kielce II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Czarni Polaniec 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Korona Kielce II 2–1–3 Czarni Polaniec (6 last)

Korona Kielce II2-1Czarni Polaniec
Czarni Polaniec4-0Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II3-0Czarni Polaniec
Czarni Polaniec0-0Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II3-4Czarni Polaniec
Czarni Polaniec3-2Korona Kielce II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Korona Kielce II 1494 · Czarni Polaniec 1476

	Korona Kielce II	Draw	Czarni Polaniec
Our model	45%	24%	32%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Czarni Polaniec: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Korona Kielce II	Czarni Polaniec
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.2	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.6	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +4’	2.00	3.80	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Korona Kielce II 2–1–3 Czarni Polaniec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	2-1 HT 1-0	Czarni Polaniec
08/11/25 Poland III Liga	Czarni Polaniec	4-0 HT 3-0	Korona Kielce II
22/03/25 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	3-0 HT 1-0	Czarni Polaniec
24/08/24 Poland III Liga	Czarni Polaniec	0-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce II
17/06/23 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	3-4 HT 2-1	Czarni Polaniec
19/11/22 Poland III Liga	Czarni Polaniec	3-2 HT 1-1	Korona Kielce II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Korona Kielce II	Czarni Polaniec
KSZO Ostrowiec	2-3 L	1-1 D
Avia Swidnik	1-5 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Czarni Polaniec (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Korona Kielce II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
14/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	2-3	7	5	L
08/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	3-3	4-5	7	6	L
30/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
22/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-5	4	8	L
13/05	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	6	8	W
01/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	1	9	W

Czarni Polaniec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	8	6	L
15/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
02/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
24/07	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
11/07	KSZO Ostrowiec Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	8	0	D
30/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
22/05	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
16/05	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
13/05	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Korona Kielce II vs Czarni Polaniec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Korona Kielce II win (45%). Probabilities: Korona Kielce II 45%, draw 24%, Czarni Polaniec 32%.

How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce II vs Czarni Polaniec?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Korona Kielce II 1.93 · Czarni Polaniec 1.61), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Korona Kielce II vs Czarni Polaniec?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.