Football · Poland III Liga · 14/08, 19:29

Prediction: KSZO Ostrowiec vs Korona Kielce II

Team pages: KSZO Ostrowiec · Korona Kielce II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

KSZO Ostrowiec2.2

Korona Kielce II0.94

1X2

66% 20% 15%

KSZO Ostrowiec Draw Korona Kielce II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

KSZO Ostrowiec 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Korona Kielce II 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

KSZO Ostrowiec 3–1–2 Korona Kielce II (6 last)

KSZO Ostrowiec0-0Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II1-2KSZO Ostrowiec
Korona Kielce II1-2KSZO Ostrowiec
KSZO Ostrowiec1-2Korona Kielce II
KSZO Ostrowiec2-0Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II2-1KSZO Ostrowiec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KSZO Ostrowiec 1548 · Korona Kielce II 1501

	KSZO Ostrowiec	Draw	Korona Kielce II
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KSZO Ostrowiec (rating 1548 vs 1501).
H2H favours KSZO Ostrowiec: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KSZO Ostrowiec	Korona Kielce II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	2.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	7.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +3’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KSZO Ostrowiec 3–1–2 Korona Kielce II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	0-0 HT 0-0	Korona Kielce II
19/09/25 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	1-2 HT 1-2	KSZO Ostrowiec
17/04/25 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	1-2 HT 0-1	KSZO Ostrowiec
20/09/24 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	1-2 HT 0-1	Korona Kielce II
18/03/23 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	2-0 HT 1-0	Korona Kielce II
17/08/22 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	2-1 HT 1-0	KSZO Ostrowiec

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	Czarni Polaniec	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Chelmianka Chelm	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Wisloka Debica	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	KSZO Ostrowiec	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Moravia Morawica	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Naprzod Jedrzejow	2	1	0	1	5	6	3
10	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
11	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	JKS Jaroslaw	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Star Starachowice	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KSZO Ostrowiec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/07	Czarni Polaniec Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
01/07	Star Starachowice Europe Friendlies	4-0	6-0	3	0	W
09/06	Resovia Rzeszow Poland League II Play-Offs	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
06/06	Resovia Rzeszow Poland League II Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
03/06	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/05	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	0	9	W
16/05	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Korona Kielce II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	3-3	4-5	7	6	L
30/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
22/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-5	4	8	L
13/05	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	6	8	W
01/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	1	9	W
25/04	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-3	1-4	–	–	L
17/04	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	6	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KSZO Ostrowiec vs Korona Kielce II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KSZO Ostrowiec win (66%). Probabilities: KSZO Ostrowiec 66%, draw 20%, Korona Kielce II 15%.

How many goals are expected in KSZO Ostrowiec vs Korona Kielce II?

The model expects 3.14 goals (KSZO Ostrowiec 2.2 · Korona Kielce II 0.94), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KSZO Ostrowiec vs Korona Kielce II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.