Football · Poland III Liga · 09/08, 18:00

Prediction: Star Starachowice vs KSZO Ostrowiec

Team pages: Star Starachowice · KSZO Ostrowiec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Star Starachowice1.19

KSZO Ostrowiec1.81

1X2

24% 24% 51%

Star Starachowice Draw KSZO Ostrowiec

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Star Starachowice 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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KSZO Ostrowiec 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Star Starachowice 1–2–3 KSZO Ostrowiec (6 last)

KSZO Ostrowiec6-0Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-3KSZO Ostrowiec
KSZO Ostrowiec0-0Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice3-1KSZO Ostrowiec
KSZO Ostrowiec2-2Star Starachowice
KSZO Ostrowiec2-0Star Starachowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1444 · KSZO Ostrowiec 1554

	Star Starachowice	Draw	KSZO Ostrowiec
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KSZO Ostrowiec (rating 1444 vs 1554).
H2H favours KSZO Ostrowiec: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Star Starachowice	KSZO Ostrowiec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.8	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
04:01 +29’	3.60	3.80	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 1–2–3 KSZO Ostrowiec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Europe Friendlies	KSZO Ostrowiec	6-0 HT 4-0	Star Starachowice
28/03/26 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-3 HT 1-1	KSZO Ostrowiec
07/09/25 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	0-0 HT 0-0	Star Starachowice
21/05/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	3-1 HT 2-0	KSZO Ostrowiec
27/10/24 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	2-2 HT 0-0	Star Starachowice
18/05/24 Poland III Liga	KSZO Ostrowiec	2-0 HT 1-0	Star Starachowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Wisla Krakow II	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
2	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
3	Czarni Polaniec	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	1	1	0	0	5	4	3
6	Chelmianka Chelm	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	KSZO Ostrowiec	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Hetman Zamosc	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
9	JKS Jaroslaw	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Wisloka Debica	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	Korona Kielce II	2	0	0	2	5	7	0
16	Star Starachowice	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
17	Moravia Morawica	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
18	Wieczysta Krakow II	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Star Starachowice	KSZO Ostrowiec
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	1-1 D	1-0 W
Czarni Polaniec	1-2 L	1-1 D
Chelmianka Chelm	2-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KSZO Ostrowiec (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Star Starachowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
16/07	Moravia Morawica Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-2	9	3	D
01/07	KSZO Ostrowiec Europe Friendlies	0-4	0-6	8	0	L
27/06	Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
29/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	8	3	L
23/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
16/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-2	2-5	–	–	L
01/05	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	2	W

KSZO Ostrowiec

LWWWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/07	Czarni Polaniec Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
01/07	Star Starachowice Europe Friendlies	4-0	6-0	3	0	W
09/06	Resovia Rzeszow Poland League II Play-Offs	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
06/06	Resovia Rzeszow Poland League II Play-Offs	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
03/06	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/05	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	0	9	W
16/05	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
13/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs KSZO Ostrowiec?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KSZO Ostrowiec win (51%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 24%, draw 24%, KSZO Ostrowiec 51%.

How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs KSZO Ostrowiec?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Star Starachowice 1.19 · KSZO Ostrowiec 1.81), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs KSZO Ostrowiec?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.