Football · Poland III Liga · 19/08, 18:00

Prediction: Elana Torun vs Unia Swarzedz

Team pages: Elana Torun · Unia Swarzedz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Elana Torun1.55

Unia Swarzedz1.68

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Elana Torun Draw Unia Swarzedz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDDW

Unia Swarzedz 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 2–3–1 Unia Swarzedz (6 last)

Elana Torun0-4Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz0-1Elana Torun
Unia Swarzedz0-0Elana Torun
Elana Torun1-1Unia Swarzedz
Elana Torun2-2Unia Swarzedz
Elana Torun1-0Unia Swarzedz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1460 · Unia Swarzedz 1525

	Elana Torun	Draw	Unia Swarzedz
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Unia Swarzedz (rating 1460 vs 1525).
H2H favours Elana Torun: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	Unia Swarzedz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.7	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	2.6 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:36 +10’	2.55	3.70	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 2–3–1 Unia Swarzedz

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	0-4 HT 0-1	Unia Swarzedz
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-1 HT 0-1	Elana Torun
21/05/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-0 HT 0-0	Elana Torun
26/10/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-1 HT 1-1	Unia Swarzedz
11/05/24 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	2-2 HT 1-0	Unia Swarzedz
13/03/21 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-0 HT 1-0	Unia Swarzedz

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	3	3	0	0	6	0	9
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
3	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Wisla Krakow II	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
6	Czarni Polaniec	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	3	2	0	1	7	7	6
8	Hetman Zamosc	3	1	2	0	5	2	5
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
13	Moravia Morawica	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
14	JKS Jaroslaw	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Star Starachowice	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
17	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3	0	0	3	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	Unia Swarzedz
Grom Nowy Staw	2-1 W	3-2 W
Lipno Steszew	1-1 D	3-0 W
Notec Czarnkow	0-3 L	0-3 L
Victoria Wrzesnia	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Unia Swarzedz (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Elana Torun

LLLLLLWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
01/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
04/07	Unia Wabrzezno Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
23/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	0	1	L
17/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	1	0	L
13/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
09/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
01/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	2	2	L

Unia Swarzedz

WWWLWLWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
09/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
01/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
25/07	KSS Kotwica Kornik Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
17/07	Sokol Kleczew Europe Friendlies	0-3	1-7	4	1	L
15/07	Lipno Steszew Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
30/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	7	3	L
23/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	4	4	W
17/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	0	W
13/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs Unia Swarzedz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Unia Swarzedz win (40%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 35%, draw 25%, Unia Swarzedz 40%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Elana Torun 1.55 · Unia Swarzedz 1.68), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs Unia Swarzedz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.