Football · Poland III Liga · 19/08, 18:00
Prediction: Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec
Team pages: Star Starachowice · Czarni Polaniec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
Star Starachowice1.62
Czarni Polaniec1.47
1X2
Star Starachowice
Draw
Czarni Polaniec
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Star Starachowice
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Czarni Polaniec
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Star Starachowice
5–1
Czarni Polaniec
(6 last)
- Czarni Polaniec2-1Star Starachowice
- Star Starachowice3-2Czarni Polaniec
- Czarni Polaniec0-2Star Starachowice
- Star Starachowice4-1Czarni Polaniec
- Czarni Polaniec2-3Star Starachowice
- Star Starachowice4-0Czarni Polaniec
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1440 · Czarni Polaniec 1482
| Star Starachowice | Draw | Czarni Polaniec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Czarni Polaniec (rating 1440 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Star Starachowice: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Star Starachowice | Czarni Polaniec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.5 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.6 | 2.5 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 5–0–1 Czarni Polaniec
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Poland III Liga | Czarni Polaniec | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Star Starachowice |
| 31/10/25 Poland III Liga | Star Starachowice | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Czarni Polaniec |
| 26/04/25 Poland III Liga | Czarni Polaniec | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Star Starachowice |
| 28/09/24 Poland III Liga | Star Starachowice | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Czarni Polaniec |
| 13/07/24 Europe Friendlies | Czarni Polaniec | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Star Starachowice |
| 16/03/24 Poland III Liga | Star Starachowice | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Czarni Polaniec |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisloka Debica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | JKS Jaroslaw | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Star Starachowice | Czarni Polaniec |
|---|---|---|
| KSZO Ostrowiec | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Avia Swidnik | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Star Starachowice (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Star Starachowice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/07 | Moravia Morawica Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 01/07 | KSZO Ostrowiec Europe Friendlies |
0-4 | 0-6 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/05 | Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Czarni Polaniec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/07 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | KSZO Ostrowiec Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 30/05 | Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Star Starachowice Poland III Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/05 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Star Starachowice win (41%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 41%, draw 25%, Czarni Polaniec 34%.
How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Star Starachowice 1.62 · Czarni Polaniec 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Czarni Polaniec?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.