Prediction: Union Santa Fe (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)
Expected goals: 3.12 (Union Santa Fe (W) 0.62 · San Lorenzo (W) 2.5). The model gives 7% home, 15% draw, 78% away. Under 3.25 goals (53%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 0-2.
Recent form leaves Union Santa Fe (W) with 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses over 10 games; San Lorenzo (W) has piled up 8-1-1 in the same span.
| Union Santa Fe (W) | Draw | San Lorenzo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 6% | 16% | 78% |
| Market | 7% | 15% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1414 vs 1591).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Santa Fe (W) | San Lorenzo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.3 | 2.2 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.2 | 2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Standings · Argentina Championship Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Club (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 29 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo (W) | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 29 |
| 3 | River Plate (W) | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 23 |
| 4 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Gimnasia LP (W) | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 19 |
| 6 | Banfield (W) | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors (W) | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Social Atletico Television (W) | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 9 | San Luis FC (W) | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
| 10 | Belgrano (W) | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| 11 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 15 |
| 12 | Huracan (W) | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 11 |
| 13 | Lanus (W) | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Independiente Women | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 10 |
| 15 | Newell's Old Boys (W) | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 5 |
| 16 | Union Santa Fe (W) | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Santa Fe (W) | San Lorenzo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Social Atletico Television (W) | 0-5 L | 3-1 W |
| CA Independiente Women | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Huracan (W) | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Belgrano (W) | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| River Plate (W) | 1-6 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Santa Fe (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/06 | Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/03 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
San Lorenzo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 29/06 | Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 22/05 | Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 27/03 | CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an San Lorenzo (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe (W) 7%, draw 15%, San Lorenzo (W) 78%.
How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Union Santa Fe (W) 0.62 · San Lorenzo (W) 2.5), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe (W) vs San Lorenzo (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.