Football · Spain Primera Women · 20/09, 18:00
Prediction: Eibar (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)
Team pages: Eibar (W) · Athletic Bilbao (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.95Total
Eibar (W)0.56
Athletic Bilbao (W)1.39
1X2
Eibar (W)
Draw
Athletic Bilbao (W)
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-1 19%
Recent form · 10 last
Eibar (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Athletic Bilbao (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eibar (W)
1–1–4
Athletic Bilbao (W)
(6 last)
- Eibar (W)0-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)2-0Eibar (W)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)2-2Eibar (W)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)0-1Eibar (W)
- Eibar (W)1-2Athletic Bilbao (W)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)1-0Eibar (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eibar (W) 1485 · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1553
| Eibar (W) | Draw | Athletic Bilbao (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 30% | 56% |
| Market | 16% | 25% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (W) (rating 1485 vs 1553).
- H2H favours Athletic Bilbao (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eibar (W) | Athletic Bilbao (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 2.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eibar (W) 1–1–4 Athletic Bilbao (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Spain Primera Women | Eibar (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
| 08/11/25 Spain Primera Women | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Eibar (W) |
| 16/08/25 Women’s Friendly | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Eibar (W) |
| 02/02/25 Spain Primera Women | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Eibar (W) |
| 13/10/24 Spain Primera Women | Eibar (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
| 03/08/24 Women’s Friendly | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Eibar (W) |
Standings · Spain Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Madrid CFF (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Madrid (W) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Badalona (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Logrono United (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | CD Alaves (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Eibar (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Atletico Madrid (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 | Granada (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 11 | Sevilla (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Tenerife (W) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| 13 | Espanyol (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 15 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Valencia (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eibar (W) | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Badalona (W) | 1-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Espanyol (W) | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Logrono United (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Alhama CF (W) | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Atletico Madrid (W) | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Levante UD (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (W) (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eibar (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/09 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/03 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Athletic Bilbao (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 10 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/03 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eibar (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Eibar (W) 15%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao (W) 58%.
How many goals are expected in Eibar (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?
The model expects 1.95 goals (Eibar (W) 0.56 · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1.39), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Eibar (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.