Football · Spain Primera Women · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao (W) · Atletico Madrid (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Athletic Bilbao (W)1.13

Atletico Madrid (W)1.48

1X2

29% 27% 45%

Athletic Bilbao (W) Draw Atletico Madrid (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Atletico Madrid (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao (W) 0–2–4 Atletico Madrid (W) (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao (W)1-2Atletico Madrid (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)4-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)1-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)1-0Athletic Bilbao (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)0-2Atletico Madrid (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)0-0Atletico Madrid (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1517 · Atletico Madrid (W) 1521

	Athletic Bilbao (W)	Draw	Atletico Madrid (W)
Our model	28%	28%	44%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid (W): 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao (W)	Atletico Madrid (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.4	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.11
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.16 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:28 +3’	3.10	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +80’	3.11	3.26	2.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao (W) 0–2–4 Atletico Madrid (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid (W)
04/02/26 Spain Copa De La Reina	Atletico Madrid (W)	4-1 HT 2-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
04/10/25 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
04/05/25 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
05/10/24 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
06/08/24 Women’s Friendly	Athletic Bilbao (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	4	4	0	0	19	2	12
2	Real Madrid (W)	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	Madrid CFF (W)	4	3	0	1	8	7	9
4	Athletic Bilbao (W)	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
4	FC Badalona (W)	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	Eibar (W)	4	2	1	1	3	4	7
7	Logrono United (W)	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
8	Atletico Madrid (W)	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Sevilla (W)	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
10	CD Alaves (W)	4	2	0	2	3	7	6
11	Espanyol (W)	4	1	1	2	7	5	4
12	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	4	1	1	2	3	3	4
13	Granada (W)	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
14	Real Sociedad (W)	4	0	2	2	3	6	2
15	Tenerife (W)	4	0	2	2	2	9	2
16	Valencia (W)	4	0	0	4	3	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao (W)	Atletico Madrid (W)
Eibar (W)	0-1 L	4-0 W
Logrono United (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
FC Badalona (W)	3-1 W	4-2 W
Deportivo A Coruna (W)	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
12/09	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
06/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
30/08	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	3-1	5	8	W
31/05	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
26/05	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
09/05	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/04	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	1-2	12	6	L
05/04	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Atletico Madrid (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-4	2	1	L
06/09	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
30/08	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	2-3	2-3	5	4	L
31/05	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
10/05	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-1	0	5	L
03/05	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	6	1	W
25/04	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	4-2	4	3	W
05/04	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao (W) 29%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid (W) 45%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Athletic Bilbao (W) 1.13 · Atletico Madrid (W) 1.48), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.