Football · Spain Primera Women · 26/09, 12:00

Prediction: Real Sociedad (W) vs Real Madrid (W)

Team pages: Real Sociedad (W) · Real Madrid (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Real Sociedad (W)0.98

Real Madrid (W)1.59

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Real Sociedad (W) Draw Real Madrid (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLLDD

Real Madrid (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad (W) 0–1–5 Real Madrid (W) (6 last)

Real Sociedad (W)0-3Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)1-0Real Sociedad (W)
Real Madrid (W)3-0Real Sociedad (W)
Real Madrid (W)1-1Real Sociedad (W)
Real Sociedad (W)1-4Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)3-2Real Sociedad (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad (W) 1464 · Real Madrid (W) 1627

	Real Sociedad (W)	Draw	Real Madrid (W)
Our model	22%	28%	50%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (W) (rating 1464 vs 1627).
H2H favours Real Madrid (W): 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad (W)	Real Madrid (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.70

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	1.80 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.84 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +3’	3.60	3.60	1.80
17:39 +2’	3.80▲	3.70▲	1.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +26’	3.40	3.45	1.97
13:52 +4’	3.63▲	3.51▲	1.88▼
14:57 +16’	3.75▲	3.55▲	1.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad (W) 0–1–5 Real Madrid (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Real Madrid (W)
06/12/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad (W)
30/03/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad (W)
13/02/25 Spain Copa De La Reina	Real Madrid (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad (W)
04/02/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	1-4 HT 0-2	Real Madrid (W)
23/01/25 Spain Super Cup Women	Real Madrid (W)	3-2 HT 2-1	Real Sociedad (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	4	4	0	0	19	2	12
2	Real Madrid (W)	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	Madrid CFF (W)	4	3	0	1	8	7	9
4	Athletic Bilbao (W)	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
4	FC Badalona (W)	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	Eibar (W)	4	2	1	1	3	4	7
7	Logrono United (W)	4	2	0	2	4	3	6
8	Atletico Madrid (W)	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Sevilla (W)	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
10	CD Alaves (W)	4	2	0	2	3	7	6
11	Espanyol (W)	4	1	1	2	7	5	4
12	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	4	1	1	2	3	3	4
13	Granada (W)	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
14	Real Sociedad (W)	4	0	2	2	3	6	2
15	Tenerife (W)	4	0	2	2	2	9	2
16	Valencia (W)	4	0	0	4	3	10	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad (W)	Real Madrid (W)
FC Badalona (W)	0-0 D	4-0 W
Granada (W)	2-3 L	2-0 W
Atletico Madrid (W)	2-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo A Coruna (W)	2-1 W	2-0 W
Madrid CFF (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad (W)

WWWWLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
13/09	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
07/09	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	2-2	2-3	8	1	L
29/08	EDF Logrono (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
31/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/05	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
09/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/05	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
26/04	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	13	5	W
04/04	Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women	3-1	5-1	8	2	W

Real Madrid (W)

WDWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/09	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	16	3	D
30/08	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	3-2	3-2	4	4	W
31/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
26/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	4	1	W
10/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/04	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
05/04	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Madrid (W) win (51%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad (W) 23%, draw 26%, Real Madrid (W) 51%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Real Sociedad (W) 0.98 · Real Madrid (W) 1.59), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.