Football · Spain Primera Women · 04/10, 17:00

Prediction: Barcelona (W) vs Real Madrid (W)

Team pages: Barcelona (W) · Real Madrid (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Barcelona (W)2.95

Real Madrid (W)0.95

1X2

82% 12% 6%

Barcelona (W) Draw Real Madrid (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona (W) 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Real Madrid (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Barcelona (W) 6–0 Real Madrid (W) (6 last)

Barcelona (W)6-0Real Madrid (W)
Real Madrid (W)0-3Barcelona (W)
Real Madrid (W)2-6Barcelona (W)
Real Madrid (W)0-4Barcelona (W)
Barcelona (W)2-0Real Madrid (W)
Barcelona (W)4-0Real Madrid (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona (W) 1745 · Real Madrid (W) 1587

	Barcelona (W)	Draw	Real Madrid (W)
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	85%	11%	4%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (W) (rating 1745 vs 1587).
H2H favours Barcelona (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 14.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona (W)	Real Madrid (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.9 / 0.5	2.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.4	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7.9	3.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.09

X8.50

223.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.90

2 (+2.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.09 → 1.09	Pinn 1.14 ★
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	23.00 → 23.00	Bet365 23.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +3’	1.09	8.50	23.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:41 +7’	1.14	8.13	10.89
21:02 +125’	1.14▲	8.11▼	10.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona (W) 6–0–0 Real Madrid (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/26 UEFA Women's Champions League	Barcelona (W)	6-0 HT 4-0	Real Madrid (W)
29/03/26 Spain Primera Women	Real Madrid (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Barcelona (W)
25/03/26 UEFA Women's Champions League	Real Madrid (W)	2-6 HT 1-3	Barcelona (W)
05/02/26 Spain Copa De La Reina	Real Madrid (W)	0-4 HT 0-1	Barcelona (W)
24/01/26 Spain Super Cup Women	Barcelona (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Madrid (W)
15/11/25 Spain Primera Women	Barcelona (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	Real Madrid (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	5	5	0	0	21	2	15
2	Real Madrid (W)	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
3	Madrid CFF (W)	5	4	0	1	9	7	12
4	Athletic Bilbao (W)	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	Eibar (W)	5	3	1	1	4	4	10
6	FC Badalona (W)	5	2	1	2	6	5	7
7	Logrono United (W)	5	2	0	3	4	5	6
8	Atletico Madrid (W)	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
9	Sevilla (W)	5	2	0	3	4	7	6
10	Granada (W)	5	2	0	3	5	9	6
11	CD Alaves (W)	5	2	0	3	3	8	6
12	Espanyol (W)	5	1	2	2	8	6	5
13	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	5	1	2	2	4	4	5
14	Tenerife (W)	5	1	2	2	4	10	5
15	Real Sociedad (W)	5	0	2	3	6	11	2
16	Valencia (W)	5	0	0	5	4	12	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona (W)	Real Madrid (W)
Logrono United (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Madrid (W)	4-2 W	3-2 W
Sevilla (W)	4-0 W	2-0 W
Real Sociedad (W)	2-1 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona (W)

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
18/09	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	3-0	6-0	12	1	W
12/09	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	4-2	11	1	W
05/09	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	3-0	4-0	10	0	W
30/08	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	5-0	12	5	W
31/05	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	4-0	5	0	W
27/05	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	2-1	4	1	W
10/05	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
06/05	Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	5-0	11	1	W
22/04	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	4-1	2	3	W

Real Madrid (W)

DWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	5-3	6	6	W
19/09	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/09	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	16	3	D
30/08	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	3-2	3-2	4	4	W
31/05	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	11	2	W
26/05	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	4-0	4	1	W
10/05	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/05	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/04	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-1	7	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Barcelona (W) 82%, draw 12%, Real Madrid (W) 6%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Barcelona (W) 2.95 · Real Madrid (W) 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona (W) vs Real Madrid (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.