Football · Spain Primera Women · 03/10, 18:00
Prediction: Madrid CFF (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)
Team pages: Madrid CFF (W) · Athletic Bilbao (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Madrid CFF (W)1.33
Athletic Bilbao (W)1.57
1X2
Madrid CFF (W)
Draw
Athletic Bilbao (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Madrid CFF (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Athletic Bilbao (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Madrid CFF (W)
1–1–4
Athletic Bilbao (W)
(6 last)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)4-1Madrid CFF (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)0-2Athletic Bilbao (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)1-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)1-0Madrid CFF (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)2-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
- Athletic Bilbao (W)1-0Madrid CFF (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madrid CFF (W) 1504 · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1552
| Madrid CFF (W) | Draw | Athletic Bilbao (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 31% | 28% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletic Bilbao (W) (rating 1504 vs 1552).
- H2H favours Athletic Bilbao (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Madrid CFF (W) | Athletic Bilbao (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.3 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Madrid CFF (W) 1–1–4 Athletic Bilbao (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Spain Primera Women | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Madrid CFF (W) |
| 13/12/25 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
| 19/04/25 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
| 23/11/24 Spain Primera Women | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Madrid CFF (W) |
| 20/04/24 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
| 14/01/24 Spain Copa De La Reina | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Madrid CFF (W) |
Standings · Spain Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Eibar (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Badalona (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Logrono United (W) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | Atletico Madrid (W) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla (W) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada (W) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| 11 | CD Alaves (W) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | Tenerife (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad (W) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Madrid CFF (W) | Athletic Bilbao (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol (W) | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Granada (W) | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Logrono United (W) | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madrid CFF (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 26/05 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-2 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Athletic Bilbao (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 10 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Alhama CF (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/05 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madrid CFF (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Athletic Bilbao (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Madrid CFF (W) 31%, draw 27%, Athletic Bilbao (W) 42%.
How many goals are expected in Madrid CFF (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Madrid CFF (W) 1.33 · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Madrid CFF (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.