Football · Spain Primera Women · 09/11, 19:00
Prediction: Atletico Madrid (W) vs FC Badalona (W)
Team pages: Atletico Madrid (W) · FC Badalona (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Atletico Madrid (W)2.25
FC Badalona (W)0.95
1X2
Atletico Madrid (W)
Draw
FC Badalona (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Madrid (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
FC Badalona (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Madrid (W)
5–1–0
FC Badalona (W)
(6 last)
- FC Badalona (W)2-4Atletico Madrid (W)
- Atletico Madrid (W)2-0FC Badalona (W)
- Atletico Madrid (W)5-0FC Badalona (W)
- FC Badalona (W)1-1Atletico Madrid (W)
- FC Badalona (W)0-1Atletico Madrid (W)
- Atletico Madrid (W)3-1FC Badalona (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid (W) 1537 · FC Badalona (W) 1445
| Atletico Madrid (W) | Draw | FC Badalona (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (W) (rating 1537 vs 1445).
- H2H favours Atletico Madrid (W): 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Madrid (W) | FC Badalona (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.5 | 3.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid (W) 5–1–0 FC Badalona (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Spain Primera Women | FC Badalona (W) | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Atletico Madrid (W) |
| 16/11/25 Spain Primera Women | Atletico Madrid (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Badalona (W) |
| 18/05/25 Spain Primera Women | Atletico Madrid (W) | 5-0 HT 1-0 | FC Badalona (W) |
| 18/01/25 Spain Primera Women | FC Badalona (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid (W) |
| 20/12/24 Spain Copa De La Reina | FC Badalona (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Atletico Madrid (W) |
| 24/05/24 Spain Primera Women | Atletico Madrid (W) | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Badalona (W) |
Standings · Spain Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Madrid (W) | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF (W) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Tenerife (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 | Espanyol (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Eibar (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad (W) | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 12 | Logrono United (W) | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla (W) | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 14 | CD Alaves (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 15 | FC Badalona (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 8 |
| 16 | Valencia (W) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid (W) | FC Badalona (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Granada (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Athletic Bilbao (W) | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Logrono United (W) | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Barcelona (W) | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Real Sociedad (W) | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Madrid (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 23/10 | Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/10 | Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women |
4-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 27/09 | Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
FC Badalona (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/10 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/09 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Levante UD (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid (W) vs FC Badalona (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Madrid (W) win (66%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid (W) 66%, draw 20%, FC Badalona (W) 14%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid (W) vs FC Badalona (W)?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Atletico Madrid (W) 2.25 · FC Badalona (W) 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid (W) vs FC Badalona (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.