Football · Spain Primera Women · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Real Sociedad (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)

Team pages: Real Sociedad (W) · Athletic Bilbao (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Real Sociedad (W)1.41

Athletic Bilbao (W)1.07

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Real Sociedad (W) Draw Athletic Bilbao (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWDDW

Athletic Bilbao (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWDLD

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad (W) 2–1–3 Athletic Bilbao (W) (6 last)

Athletic Bilbao (W)0-2Real Sociedad (W)
Real Sociedad (W)1-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)2-0Real Sociedad (W)
Real Sociedad (W)1-0Athletic Bilbao (W)
Real Sociedad (W)0-1Athletic Bilbao (W)
Athletic Bilbao (W)2-1Real Sociedad (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad (W) 1562 · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1515

	Real Sociedad (W)	Draw	Athletic Bilbao (W)
Our model	43%	29%	27%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad (W) (rating 1562 vs 1515).
H2H favours Athletic Bilbao (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad (W)	Athletic Bilbao (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	1.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.07
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.33 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +3’	1.80	3.50	3.60
20:11 +19’	1.95▲	3.40▼	3.20▼
22:52 +16’	1.80▼	3.50▲	3.60▲
02:01 +14’	1.65▼	3.70▲	4.20▲
03:38 +35’	1.73▲	3.60▼	3.90▼
13:57 +11’	2.00▲	3.40▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +8’	1.85	3.45	3.95
02:08 +7’	1.67▼	3.67▲	4.67▲
03:14 +6’	1.79▲	3.49▼	4.16▼
11:12 +9’	1.84▲	3.46▼	3.97▼
13:55 +12’	2.07▲	3.31▼	3.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad (W) 2–1–3 Athletic Bilbao (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Real Sociedad (W)
16/11/25 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
16/02/25 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Real Sociedad (W)
17/11/24 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
23/03/24 Spain Primera Women	Real Sociedad (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletic Bilbao (W)
22/10/23 Spain Primera Women	Athletic Bilbao (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	10	9	0	1	41	5	27
2	Real Madrid (W)	10	7	2	1	23	18	23
3	Atletico Madrid (W)	10	6	1	3	22	12	19
4	Tenerife (W)	10	5	2	3	17	15	17
5	Madrid CFF (W)	10	5	2	3	16	21	17
6	Athletic Bilbao (W)	10	4	4	2	13	11	16
7	Espanyol (W)	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
8	Real Sociedad (W)	10	3	4	3	13	15	13
9	Eibar (W)	10	3	3	4	10	13	12
10	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	10	3	2	5	11	13	11
11	Granada (W)	10	3	2	5	9	16	11
12	Logrono United (W)	10	3	1	6	11	14	10
13	Sevilla (W)	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
14	CD Alaves (W)	9	2	2	5	6	13	8
15	FC Badalona (W)	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
16	Valencia (W)	10	2	0	8	8	19	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad (W)	Athletic Bilbao (W)
Eibar (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Espanyol (W)	1-1 D	2-2 D
Valencia (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Real Madrid (W)	3-5 L	1-1 D
FC Badalona (W)	0-0 D	3-1 W
Tenerife (W)	1-1 D	0-2 L
Logrono United (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Bilbao (W) (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad (W)

LLDDLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
01/11	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
24/10	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
18/10	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
04/10	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
26/09	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	3-5	3	6	L
19/09	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
13/09	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
07/09	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	2-2	2-3	8	1	L
29/08	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-2	6	3	L

Athletic Bilbao (W)

WWDLWDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
02/11	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
24/10	Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
17/10	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
03/10	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
27/09	Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
20/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
12/09	Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-2	8	2	D
06/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
30/08	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	3-1	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad (W) 44%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao (W) 28%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Real Sociedad (W) 1.41 · Athletic Bilbao (W) 1.07), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad (W) vs Athletic Bilbao (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.