Football · Spain Primera Women · 15/11, 16:00

Prediction: Sevilla (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)

Team pages: Sevilla (W) · Atletico Madrid (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Sevilla (W)0.99

Atletico Madrid (W)2.09

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Sevilla (W) Draw Atletico Madrid (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sevilla (W) 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDDDLD

Atletico Madrid (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Sevilla (W) 1–2–3 Atletico Madrid (W) (6 last)

Sevilla (W)2-1Atletico Madrid (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)2-2Sevilla (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)1-0Sevilla (W)
Sevilla (W)1-2Atletico Madrid (W)
Sevilla (W)1-1Atletico Madrid (W)
Atletico Madrid (W)2-1Sevilla (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sevilla (W) 1486 · Atletico Madrid (W) 1536

	Sevilla (W)	Draw	Atletico Madrid (W)
Our model	16%	22%	62%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (W) (rating 1486 vs 1536).
H2H favours Atletico Madrid (W): 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sevilla (W)	Atletico Madrid (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.10

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 5.50▲	Pinn 5.90 ★
X	3.90 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.20
2	1.55 → 1.45▼	Pinn 1.48

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +20’	4.75	3.90	1.55
18:31 +2’	5.50▲	4.10▲	1.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +12’	5.90	4.20	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla (W) 1–2–3 Atletico Madrid (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Primera Women	Sevilla (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
06/12/25 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	2-2 HT 0-2	Sevilla (W)
07/02/25 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla (W)
17/11/24 Spain Primera Women	Sevilla (W)	1-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
09/06/24 Spain Primera Women	Sevilla (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid (W)
07/10/23 Spain Primera Women	Atletico Madrid (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Sevilla (W)

Standings · Spain Primera Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona (W)	10	9	0	1	41	5	27
2	Real Madrid (W)	10	7	2	1	23	18	23
3	Atletico Madrid (W)	10	6	1	3	22	12	19
4	Tenerife (W)	10	5	2	3	17	15	17
5	Madrid CFF (W)	10	5	2	3	16	21	17
6	Athletic Bilbao (W)	10	4	4	2	13	11	16
7	Espanyol (W)	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
8	Real Sociedad (W)	10	3	4	3	13	15	13
9	Eibar (W)	10	3	3	4	10	13	12
10	Deportivo A Coruna (W)	10	3	2	5	11	13	11
11	Granada (W)	10	3	2	5	9	16	11
12	Logrono United (W)	10	3	1	6	11	14	10
13	Sevilla (W)	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
14	CD Alaves (W)	9	2	2	5	6	13	8
15	FC Badalona (W)	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
16	Valencia (W)	10	2	0	8	8	19	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sevilla (W)	Atletico Madrid (W)
Logrono United (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Real Madrid (W)	1-3 L	2-3 L
Athletic Bilbao (W)	0-0 D	2-3 L
CD Alaves (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Badalona (W)	3-3 D	3-0 W
Madrid CFF (W)	0-1 L	4-0 W
Barcelona (W)	0-4 L	2-4 L
Deportivo A Coruna (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sevilla (W)

WLLWLDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
01/11	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	1-3	1	1	L
24/10	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
18/10	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
03/10	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	3-3	5	5	D
27/09	Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
20/09	Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women	2-1	3-1	0	3	W
12/09	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/09	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-3	0-4	0	0	L
29/08	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

Atletico Madrid (W)

LWLWLWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	3-0	6	4	W
31/10	Granada (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
23/10	Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
18/10	Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women	4-0	4-0	2	7	W
03/10	Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	2-1	7	0	W
27/09	Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
19/09	Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women	1-1	2-4	2	1	L
06/09	CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
30/08	Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women	2-3	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sevilla (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Sevilla (W) 16%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid (W) 62%.

How many goals are expected in Sevilla (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Sevilla (W) 0.99 · Atletico Madrid (W) 2.09), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sevilla (W) vs Atletico Madrid (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.