Football · Spain Primera Women · 08/11, 16:00
Prediction: Barcelona (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)
Team pages: Barcelona (W) · Madrid CFF (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.91Total
Barcelona (W)3.46
Madrid CFF (W)1.46
1X2
Barcelona (W)
Draw
Madrid CFF (W)
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
3-1 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Barcelona (W)
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Madrid CFF (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barcelona (W)
6–0
Madrid CFF (W)
(6 last)
- Madrid CFF (W)0-4Barcelona (W)
- Barcelona (W)12-1Madrid CFF (W)
- Barcelona (W)5-1Madrid CFF (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)1-2Barcelona (W)
- Madrid CFF (W)1-8Barcelona (W)
- Barcelona (W)8-0Madrid CFF (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barcelona (W) 1675 · Madrid CFF (W) 1501
| Barcelona (W) | Draw | Madrid CFF (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 12% |
| Market | 94% | 3% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.91 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 87%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (W) (rating 1675 vs 1501).
- H2H favours Barcelona (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barcelona (W) | Madrid CFF (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5.2 / 9.3 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona (W) 6–0–0 Madrid CFF (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Barcelona (W) |
| 10/01/26 Spain Primera Women | Barcelona (W) | 12-1 HT 7-0 | Madrid CFF (W) |
| 16/02/25 Spain Primera Women | Barcelona (W) | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Madrid CFF (W) |
| 12/02/25 Spain Copa De La Reina | Madrid CFF (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Barcelona (W) |
| 05/10/24 Spain Primera Women | Madrid CFF (W) | 1-8 HT 1-0 | Barcelona (W) |
| 01/05/24 Spain Primera Women | Barcelona (W) | 8-0 HT 5-0 | Madrid CFF (W) |
Standings · Spain Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona (W) | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Madrid (W) | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF (W) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid (W) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | Athletic Bilbao (W) | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Tenerife (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 | Espanyol (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Eibar (W) | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad (W) | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 12 | Logrono United (W) | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla (W) | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 9 |
| 14 | CD Alaves (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 15 | FC Badalona (W) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 8 |
| 16 | Valencia (W) | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona (W) | Madrid CFF (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Granada (W) | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| CD Alaves (W) | 6-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Atletico Madrid (W) | 4-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Sevilla (W) | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Barcelona (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | FC Badalona (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 16 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | Real Sociedad (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Real Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
5-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Logrono United (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/09 | CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Tenerife (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Madrid CFF (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
Madrid CFF (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Deportivo A Coruna (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | Eibar (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Atletico Madrid (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-4 | 0-4 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 03/10 | Athletic Bilbao (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 26/09 | CD Alaves (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Espanyol (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Sevilla (W) Spain Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Valencia (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Granada (W) Spain Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Barcelona (W) Spain Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barcelona (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Barcelona (W) 85%, draw 8%, Madrid CFF (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Barcelona (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?
The model expects 4.91 goals (Barcelona (W) 3.46 · Madrid CFF (W) 1.46), with a 54% chance of under 5.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Barcelona (W) vs Madrid CFF (W)?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.