Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 01/11, 12:15
Prediction: Ajax (W) vs FC Twente (W)
Team pages: Ajax (W) · FC Twente (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Ajax (W)1.4
FC Twente (W)1.69
1X2
Ajax (W)
Draw
FC Twente (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax (W)
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
FC Twente (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax (W)
1–2–3
FC Twente (W)
(6 last)
- Ajax (W)0-0FC Twente (W)
- FC Twente (W)1-1Ajax (W)
- FC Twente (W)5-1Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)0-2FC Twente (W)
- Ajax (W)2-0FC Twente (W)
- FC Twente (W)6-1Ajax (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax (W) 1534 · FC Twente (W) 1604
| Ajax (W) | Draw | FC Twente (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (W) (rating 1534 vs 1604).
- H2H favours FC Twente (W): 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax (W) | FC Twente (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.2 | 3.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 7 | 3.1 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax (W) 1–2–3 FC Twente (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Twente (W) |
| 17/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | FC Twente (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 21/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | FC Twente (W) | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Ajax (W) |
| 15/02/25 Netherlands Cup Women | Ajax (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | FC Twente (W) |
| 09/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Twente (W) |
| 31/08/24 Netherlands Cup Women | FC Twente (W) | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Ajax (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente (W) | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 4 | 22 |
| 2 | Ajax (W) | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | PSV (W) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | De Graafschap (W) | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 12 |
| 6 | Heerenveen (W) | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 8 |
| 8 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 7 |
| 9 | Feyenoord (W) | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Utrecht (W) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ajax (W) | FC Twente (W) |
|---|---|---|
| PSV (W) | 1-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Feyenoord (W) | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| ADO Den Haag (W) | 7-1 W | 7-1 W |
| VV Alkmaar (W) | 5-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Heerenveen (W) | 1-3 L | 5-1 W |
| De Graafschap (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| PEC Zwolle (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Utrecht (W) | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 7 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Twente (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 04/10 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
FC Twente (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 27/09 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 7-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 19 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax (W) vs FC Twente (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Twente (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Ajax (W) 31%, draw 25%, FC Twente (W) 44%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax (W) vs FC Twente (W)?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Ajax (W) 1.4 · FC Twente (W) 1.69), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax (W) vs FC Twente (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.