Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 25/10, 12:15

Prediction: Heerenveen (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)

Team pages: Heerenveen (W) · VV Alkmaar (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Heerenveen (W)1.76

VV Alkmaar (W)1.94

1X2

35% 24% 42%

Heerenveen (W) Draw VV Alkmaar (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Heerenveen (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWDWD

VV Alkmaar (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Heerenveen (W) 3–3 VV Alkmaar (W) (6 last)

VV Alkmaar (W)1-5Heerenveen (W)
Heerenveen (W)3-2VV Alkmaar (W)
Heerenveen (W)2-3VV Alkmaar (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)1-0Heerenveen (W)
VV Alkmaar (W)1-2Heerenveen (W)
Heerenveen (W)0-1VV Alkmaar (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heerenveen (W) 1501 · VV Alkmaar (W) 1478

	Heerenveen (W)	Draw	VV Alkmaar (W)
Our model	35%	23%	42%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heerenveen (W)	VV Alkmaar (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.2	1.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.75

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.80 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:49 +2’	2.60	3.75	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +263’	2.78	3.47	2.25
21:16 +19’	2.80▲	3.41▼	2.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen (W) 3–0–3 VV Alkmaar (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	1-5 HT 1-1	Heerenveen (W)
18/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Heerenveen (W)	3-2 HT 2-1	VV Alkmaar (W)
26/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Heerenveen (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	VV Alkmaar (W)
24/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Heerenveen (W)
11/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	VV Alkmaar (W)	1-2	Heerenveen (W)
15/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie Women	Heerenveen (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	VV Alkmaar (W)

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Twente (W)	7	7	0	0	29	3	21
2	Ajax (W)	8	6	0	2	21	10	18
3	PSV (W)	8	5	1	2	21	9	16
4	De Graafschap (W)	8	4	0	4	11	12	12
5	VV Alkmaar (W)	7	4	0	3	9	16	12
6	Heerenveen (W)	7	2	2	3	11	13	8
7	PEC Zwolle (W)	7	2	1	4	13	17	7
8	ADO Den Haag (W)	7	2	1	4	12	25	7
9	Feyenoord (W)	8	2	0	6	9	21	6
10	FC Utrecht (W)	7	0	1	6	4	14	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heerenveen (W)	VV Alkmaar (W)
FC Utrecht (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
ADO Den Haag (W)	2-2 D	2-1 W
Ajax (W)	3-1 W	1-5 L
FC Twente (W)	1-5 L	0-5 L
De Graafschap (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
Feyenoord (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Heerenveen (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heerenveen (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
27/09	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
20/09	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-1	2-2	6	0	D
13/09	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-1	1	1	W
06/09	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-5	4	3	L
23/08	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-1	3	0	L
16/08	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/05	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-3	1	1	L
08/05	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-5	3	0	L
03/05	VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	5-1	2	2	W

VV Alkmaar (W)

LLWWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-3	13	0	L
27/09	FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-1	0-5	0	1	L
19/09	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-3	1-5	0	2	L
13/09	PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	3-1	0	2	W
06/09	FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
16/08	ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
22/05	Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/05	Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	0-0	1-3	1	1	L
03/05	Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women	1-1	1-5	15	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heerenveen (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an VV Alkmaar (W) win (42%). Probabilities: Heerenveen (W) 35%, draw 24%, VV Alkmaar (W) 42%.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Heerenveen (W) 1.76 · VV Alkmaar (W) 1.94), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.