Football · Malta Premier League · 21/10, 20:30

Prediction: Mosta FC vs Valletta

Team pages: Mosta FC · Valletta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Mosta FC0.99

Valletta1.93

1X2

18% 24% 58%

Mosta FC Draw Valletta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Mosta FC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDLDDD

Valletta 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Mosta FC 2–2–2 Valletta (6 last)

Mosta FC0-5Valletta
Valletta4-1Mosta FC
Mosta FC1-0Valletta
Mosta FC2-1Valletta
Valletta1-1Mosta FC
Valletta0-0Mosta FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mosta FC 1477 · Valletta 1574

	Mosta FC	Draw	Valletta
Our model	18%	24%	58%
Market	18%	24%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valletta (rating 1477 vs 1574).
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mosta FC	Valletta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.80

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +9’	5.00	3.80	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosta FC 2–2–2 Valletta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	0-5 HT 0-1	Valletta
24/09/25 Malta Premier League	Valletta	4-1 HT 0-1	Mosta FC
17/02/24 Malta Premier League	Mosta FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Valletta
06/02/24 Malta FA Trophy	Mosta FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Valletta
30/09/23 Malta Premier League	Valletta	1-1 HT 0-1	Mosta FC
19/02/23 Malta Premier League	Valletta	0-0 HT 0-0	Mosta FC

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valletta	8	6	1	1	19	7	19
2	Marsaxlokk FC	8	5	2	1	15	10	17
3	Floriana	8	4	3	1	20	11	15
4	Mosta FC	8	3	4	1	13	11	13
5	Hamrun Spartans	8	3	3	2	13	10	12
6	Sliema Wanderers	8	3	2	3	9	10	11
7	Balzan FC	8	2	4	2	11	9	10
8	Birkirkara	8	3	1	4	9	8	10
9	Hibernians	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	8	2	2	4	8	12	8
11	Gzira United	8	0	4	4	6	17	4
12	Birzebbuga	8	0	1	7	3	17	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mosta FC	Valletta
Floriana	3-3 D	0-0 D
Gzira United	1-1 D	3-0 W
Birzebbuga	2-2 D	3-0 W
Sliema Wanderers	1-3 L	2-1 W
Marsaxlokk FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Birkirkara	1-0 W	2-0 W
Balzan FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Hamrun Spartans	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valletta (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mosta FC

DWWWWDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-3	3-3	6	5	D
14/10	Gzira United Malta Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
09/10	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
13/09	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	1	L
05/09	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
30/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
17/08	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/04	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-1	1-1	0	0	D

Valletta

DLWWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
10/10	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
19/09	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
13/09	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	1-2	2-2	10	10	D
02/09	Hibernians Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
28/08	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Gzira United Malta Premier League	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
15/05	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	3	L
09/05	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mosta FC vs Valletta?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valletta win (58%). Probabilities: Mosta FC 18%, draw 24%, Valletta 58%.

How many goals are expected in Mosta FC vs Valletta?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Mosta FC 0.99 · Valletta 1.93), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mosta FC vs Valletta?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.