Prediction: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)
Expected goals: 3.05 (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1.02 · Independiente del Valle (W) 2.03). The model gives 18% home, 22% draw, 60% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) is 7-1-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Independiente del Valle (W) 9-1-0 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) and 6 for Independiente del Valle (W).
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Draw | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 18% | 22% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (W) (rating 1569 vs 1645).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 0.6 | 5.2 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 86/14/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 7 | 3.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 0–0–6 Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 05/09/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 30/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 11/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) |
| 25/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 05/07/24 Ecuador Primera Women | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 64 | 5 | 37 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 34 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 16 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 10 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | EL Nacional (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 3 |
| 11 | Quito FC (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | Independiente del Valle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Macara (W) | 6-0 W | 4-0 W |
| LDU Quito (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 5-0 W | 7-0 W |
| Emelec (W) | 4-0 W | 13-0 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/04 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 12-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente del Valle (W) win (60%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 18%, draw 22%, Independiente del Valle (W) 60%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) 1.02 · Independiente del Valle (W) 2.03), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) vs Independiente del Valle (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.