Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Aurora vs Xelaju

Team pages: Aurora · Xelaju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Aurora1.5

Xelaju1.42

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Aurora Draw Xelaju

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Aurora 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWWLLLWLL

Xelaju 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLDWLW

Head-to-head

Aurora 1–2–2 Xelaju (5 last)

Xelaju3-1Aurora
Aurora0-0Xelaju
Xelaju4-0Aurora
Aurora3-2Xelaju
Xelaju2-2Aurora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aurora 1461 · Xelaju 1540

	Aurora	Draw	Xelaju
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Xelaju (rating 1461 vs 1540).
H2H favours Xelaju: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aurora	Xelaju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.7	4.1 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:04 +12’	2.35	3.25	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aurora 1–2–2 Xelaju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	3-1 HT 1-0	Aurora
08/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	0-0 HT 0-0	Xelaju
21/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	4-0 HT 3-0	Aurora
16/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Aurora	3-2 HT 2-1	Xelaju
14/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	2-2 HT 1-1	Aurora

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guastatoya	12	8	1	3	19	13	25
2	CSD Municipal	10	7	2	1	16	5	23
3	Antigua GFC	11	7	0	4	21	17	21
4	Marquense	12	6	1	5	13	15	19
5	Xelaju	12	5	3	4	24	14	18
6	Deportivo Mixco	11	6	0	5	19	17	18
7	Deportivo San Pedro	12	5	3	4	14	12	18
8	CSD Comunicaciones	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
9	Coban Imperial	12	3	4	5	15	18	13
10	Aurora	12	4	0	8	17	21	12
11	Malacateco	12	3	3	6	12	19	12
12	Suchitepequez	12	1	3	8	11	26	6

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aurora	Xelaju
Guastatoya	1-2 L	1-2 L
Coban Imperial	2-3 L	0-0 D
Marquense	1-0 W	4-0 W
Deportivo Mixco	2-3 L	4-1 W
CSD Municipal	1-2 L	0-2 L
Antigua GFC	1-2 L	4-0 W
Malacateco	1-0 W	2-2 D
Suchitepequez	3-2 W	2-2 D
Deportivo San Pedro	1-2 L	2-0 W
CSD Comunicaciones	3-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Xelaju (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aurora

WLWWLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
19/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
13/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	2-3	7	8	L
10/09	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
05/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
31/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
08/08	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	3-1	6	6	W

Xelaju

DLWWDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
27/09	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	2-3	2	6	L
24/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
21/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
14/09	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
06/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	5	W
31/08	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	4-1	5	4	W
23/08	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
08/08	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aurora vs Xelaju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aurora win (38%). Probabilities: Aurora 38%, draw 27%, Xelaju 35%.

How many goals are expected in Aurora vs Xelaju?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Aurora 1.5 · Xelaju 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aurora vs Xelaju?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.