Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 20/10, 03:00

Prediction: Antigua GFC vs Xelaju

Team pages: Antigua GFC · Xelaju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Antigua GFC1.57

Xelaju1.17

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Antigua GFC Draw Xelaju

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Antigua GFC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLDWD

Xelaju 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Antigua GFC 2–2–2 Xelaju (6 last)

Xelaju4-0Antigua GFC
Xelaju1-1Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC1-1Xelaju
Antigua GFC2-0Xelaju
Xelaju1-0Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC2-1Xelaju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antigua GFC 1505 · Xelaju 1526

	Antigua GFC	Draw	Xelaju
Our model	45%	27%	27%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antigua GFC	Xelaju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +4’	1.95	3.30	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Antigua GFC 2–2–2 Xelaju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	4-0 HT 2-0	Antigua GFC
15/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	1-1 HT 1-1	Antigua GFC
26/01/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	1-1 HT 1-1	Xelaju
12/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-0 HT 0-0	Xelaju
09/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	1-0 HT 0-0	Antigua GFC
06/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFC	2-1 HT 0-1	Xelaju

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	14	8	2	4	25	20	26
2	Guastatoya	14	8	2	4	20	16	26
3	CSD Municipal	13	7	4	2	19	9	25
4	Deportivo San Pedro	14	6	4	4	17	14	22
5	Xelaju	14	6	3	5	27	17	21
6	Marquense	14	6	3	5	15	17	21
7	Deportivo Mixco	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
8	Aurora	14	6	0	8	21	23	18
9	Coban Imperial	14	4	4	6	18	21	16
10	Malacateco	14	4	3	7	15	21	15
11	CSD Comunicaciones	14	4	2	8	17	23	14
12	Suchitepequez	14	1	5	8	15	30	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antigua GFC	Xelaju
Guastatoya	1-1 D	1-2 L
Coban Imperial	2-1 W	0-0 D
Marquense	1-2 L	4-0 W
Deportivo Mixco	1-3 L	4-1 W
Suchitepequez	3-2 W	2-2 D
Malacateco	2-0 W	2-1 W
Aurora	2-1 W	1-2 L
Deportivo San Pedro	3-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Antigua GFC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antigua GFC

LWWWLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
12/10	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
09/10	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
03/10	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	2	5	L
27/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
24/09	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-4	8	4	L
15/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	8	8	W
11/09	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
05/09	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
30/08	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-3	3-4	4	6	L

Xelaju

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
10/10	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
04/10	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
27/09	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	2-3	2	6	L
24/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
21/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
14/09	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
06/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	5	W
31/08	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	4-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antigua GFC vs Xelaju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antigua GFC win (46%). Probabilities: Antigua GFC 46%, draw 27%, Xelaju 27%.

How many goals are expected in Antigua GFC vs Xelaju?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Antigua GFC 1.57 · Xelaju 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Antigua GFC vs Xelaju?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.