Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 11/10, 03:00
Prediction: Malacateco vs Guastatoya
Team pages: Malacateco · Guastatoya
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.22Total
Malacateco1.36
Guastatoya0.86
1X2
Malacateco
Draw
Guastatoya
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Malacateco
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Guastatoya
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Malacateco
2–2–2
Guastatoya
(6 last)
- Guastatoya4-0Malacateco
- Malacateco1-0Guastatoya
- Guastatoya1-1Malacateco
- Malacateco0-1Guastatoya
- Guastatoya1-2Malacateco
- Guastatoya1-1Malacateco
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Malacateco 1463 · Guastatoya 1549
| Malacateco | Draw | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guastatoya (rating 1463 vs 1549).
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Malacateco | Guastatoya | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 1.8 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 5.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Malacateco 2–2–2 Guastatoya
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Malacateco |
| 03/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Guastatoya |
| 15/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 20/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Guastatoya |
| 10/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 22/03/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Guastatoya | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Malacateco |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guastatoya | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
| 3 | Antigua GFC | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 22 |
| 4 | Marquense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 19 |
| 5 | Xelaju | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 18 |
| 6 | Deportivo Mixco | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 18 |
| 8 | CSD Comunicaciones | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 14 |
| 9 | Coban Imperial | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 13 |
| 10 | Aurora | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 12 |
| 11 | Malacateco | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 6 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Malacateco | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|
| Coban Imperial | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Marquense | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Mixco | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| CSD Municipal | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Antigua GFC | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Suchitepequez | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Aurora | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Xelaju | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 5 L | 6 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Guastatoya (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Malacateco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
Guastatoya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/09 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/09 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 14/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Malacateco win (48%). Probabilities: Malacateco 48%, draw 29%, Guastatoya 23%.
How many goals are expected in Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Malacateco 1.36 · Guastatoya 0.86), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Malacateco vs Guastatoya?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.