Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 29/10, 18:00

Prediction: Deportivo Mixco vs Xelaju

Team pages: Deportivo Mixco · Xelaju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Deportivo Mixco1.76

Xelaju1.31

1X2

47% 26% 28%

Deportivo Mixco Draw Xelaju

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Mixco 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWDWDW

Xelaju 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Mixco 3–1–2 Xelaju (6 last)

Xelaju4-1Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco3-1Xelaju
Xelaju2-1Deportivo Mixco
Xelaju1-2Deportivo Mixco
Deportivo Mixco2-1Xelaju
Xelaju1-1Deportivo Mixco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Mixco 1524 · Xelaju 1507

	Deportivo Mixco	Draw	Xelaju
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Mixco: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Mixco	Xelaju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	4.6 / 1.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +10’	1.91	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:52 +16’	1.84	3.50	3.81

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Mixco 3–1–2 Xelaju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	4-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Mixco
11/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	3-1 HT 1-0	Xelaju
23/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	2-1 HT 2-0	Deportivo Mixco
18/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	1-2 HT 1-1	Deportivo Mixco
09/08/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Deportivo Mixco	2-1 HT 1-1	Xelaju
10/04/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Xelaju	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Mixco

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	16	9	2	5	28	21	29
2	CSD Municipal	16	7	6	3	20	11	27
3	Deportivo Mixco	16	8	3	5	29	23	27
4	Guastatoya	16	8	3	5	22	20	27
5	Xelaju	16	7	3	6	28	20	24
6	Marquense	16	7	3	6	18	21	24
7	Deportivo San Pedro	16	6	5	5	20	19	23
8	Aurora	16	7	1	8	26	26	22
9	Coban Imperial	16	5	4	7	22	25	19
10	Malacateco	16	5	4	7	18	23	19
11	CSD Comunicaciones	16	5	2	9	18	24	17
12	Suchitepequez	16	1	6	9	18	34	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Mixco	Xelaju
Guastatoya	3-1 W	1-2 L
CSD Municipal	0-0 D	1-0 W
Coban Imperial	3-1 W	0-0 D
Antigua GFC	3-1 W	0-3 L
Malacateco	0-1 L	2-1 W
Aurora	3-2 W	1-2 L
Deportivo San Pedro	0-2 L	2-0 W
CSD Comunicaciones	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Mixco (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Mixco

LDLWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/10	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
15/10	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
27/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	2	7	W
21/09	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
13/09	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-1	3-2	4	8	W
09/09	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
05/09	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
31/08	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-4	6	4	L

Xelaju

DLDWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	0	9	W
20/10	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
15/10	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
10/10	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
04/10	Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
27/09	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	2-3	2	6	L
24/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
21/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
14/09	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	10	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Mixco vs Xelaju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Mixco win (47%). Probabilities: Deportivo Mixco 47%, draw 26%, Xelaju 28%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Mixco vs Xelaju?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Deportivo Mixco 1.76 · Xelaju 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Mixco vs Xelaju?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.