Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 26/10, 00:30
Prediction: Suchitepequez vs Aurora
Team pages: Suchitepequez · Aurora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Suchitepequez1.69
Aurora1.52
1X2
Suchitepequez
Draw
Aurora
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Suchitepequez
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Aurora
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Suchitepequez
2–2–2
Aurora
(6 last)
- Aurora3-2Suchitepequez
- Suchitepequez1-1Aurora
- Aurora1-1Suchitepequez
- Suchitepequez0-1Aurora
- Aurora0-1Suchitepequez
- Suchitepequez2-0Aurora
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Suchitepequez 1443 · Aurora 1515
| Suchitepequez | Draw | Aurora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aurora (rating 1443 vs 1515).
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Suchitepequez | Aurora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Suchitepequez 2–2–2 Aurora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Suchitepequez |
| 06/05/24 Guatemala Primera Division | Suchitepequez | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Aurora |
| 02/05/24 Guatemala Primera Division | Aurora | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Suchitepequez |
| 19/11/23 Guatemala Primera Division | Suchitepequez | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Aurora |
| 16/11/23 Guatemala Primera Division | Aurora | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Suchitepequez |
| 14/05/23 Guatemala Primera Division | Suchitepequez | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Aurora |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Guastatoya | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 27 |
| 4 | Deportivo Mixco | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 24 |
| 5 | Marquense | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 24 |
| 6 | Deportivo San Pedro | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 22 |
| 7 | Xelaju | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 20 | 21 |
| 8 | Aurora | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 21 |
| 9 | Malacateco | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 18 |
| 10 | Coban Imperial | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 16 |
| 11 | CSD Comunicaciones | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 24 | 14 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 32 | 8 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Suchitepequez | Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Marquense | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo San Pedro | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Deportivo Mixco | 3-3 D | 2-3 L |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| CSD Municipal | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Xelaju | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Antigua GFC | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Guastatoya | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Malacateco | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Coban Imperial | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 5 L | 5 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Aurora (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Suchitepequez
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 16/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 05/10 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 25/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/09 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 15/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/09 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
Aurora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 31/08 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Suchitepequez vs Aurora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Suchitepequez win (40%). Probabilities: Suchitepequez 40%, draw 27%, Aurora 33%.
How many goals are expected in Suchitepequez vs Aurora?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Suchitepequez 1.69 · Aurora 1.52), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Suchitepequez vs Aurora?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.