Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 29/10, 01:00
Prediction: Malacateco vs Aurora
Team pages: Malacateco · Aurora
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Malacateco1.53
Aurora0.81
1X2
Malacateco
Draw
Aurora
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Malacateco
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Aurora
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Malacateco
2–1–3
Aurora
(6 last)
- Aurora1-0Malacateco
- Malacateco1-1Aurora
- Aurora1-0Malacateco
- Aurora2-1Malacateco
- Malacateco1-0Aurora
- Malacateco1-0Aurora
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Malacateco 1490 · Aurora 1511
| Malacateco | Draw | Aurora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Aurora: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Malacateco | Aurora | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.4 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4.9 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Malacateco 2–1–3 Aurora
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 23/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Aurora |
| 01/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Malacateco |
| 10/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Aurora | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Malacateco |
| 07/12/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aurora |
| 09/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Malacateco | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aurora |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | CSD Municipal | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Deportivo Mixco | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 23 | 27 |
| 4 | Guastatoya | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 27 |
| 5 | Xelaju | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | 24 |
| 6 | Marquense | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
| 7 | Deportivo San Pedro | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Aurora | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 22 |
| 9 | Coban Imperial | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | 19 |
| 10 | Malacateco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 19 |
| 11 | CSD Comunicaciones | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 17 |
| 12 | Suchitepequez | 16 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 9 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Malacateco | Aurora |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo San Pedro | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| CSD Comunicaciones | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Xelaju | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Guastatoya | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Coban Imperial | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Marquense | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Mixco | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| CSD Municipal | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Antigua GFC | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Suchitepequez | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Aurora (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Malacateco
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 21/10 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
Aurora
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Deportivo San Pedro Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 15/10 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/10 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/09 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/09 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Malacateco vs Aurora?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Malacateco win (54%). Probabilities: Malacateco 54%, draw 27%, Aurora 19%.
How many goals are expected in Malacateco vs Aurora?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Malacateco 1.53 · Aurora 0.81), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Malacateco vs Aurora?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.