Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 25/10, 22:10

Prediction: Deportivo San Pedro vs Malacateco

Team pages: Deportivo San Pedro · Malacateco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Deportivo San Pedro1.5

Malacateco0.79

1X2

53% 27% 19%

Deportivo San Pedro Draw Malacateco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo San Pedro 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDDLLWDL

Malacateco 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo San Pedro 0–1 Malacateco (1 last)

Malacateco2-0Deportivo San Pedro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo San Pedro 1487 · Malacateco 1498

	Deportivo San Pedro	Draw	Malacateco
Our model	53%	29%	19%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo San Pedro	Malacateco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.4	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.8	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.65▼	Bet365 1.65
X	3.25 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.63
2	3.75 → 4.50▲	Pinn 5.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:57 +4’	1.83	3.25	3.75
08:15 +4’	1.65▼	3.40▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:15 +3’	1.56	3.54	5.25
09:27 +54’	1.58▲	3.63▲	5.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo San Pedro 0–0–1 Malacateco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Malacateco	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo San Pedro

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Antigua GFC	15	9	2	4	28	20	29
2	CSD Municipal	15	7	6	2	20	10	27
3	Guastatoya	15	8	3	4	21	17	27
4	Deportivo Mixco	15	7	3	5	26	22	24
5	Marquense	15	7	3	5	17	18	24
6	Deportivo San Pedro	15	6	4	5	18	17	22
7	Xelaju	15	6	3	6	27	20	21
8	Aurora	15	7	0	8	24	24	21
9	Malacateco	15	5	3	7	16	21	18
10	Coban Imperial	15	4	4	7	19	24	16
11	CSD Comunicaciones	15	4	2	9	17	24	14
12	Suchitepequez	15	1	5	9	16	32	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo San Pedro	Malacateco
Aurora	1-3 L	0-1 L
Suchitepequez	1-1 D	2-0 W
CSD Comunicaciones	2-1 W	1-0 W
Xelaju	0-2 L	1-2 L
Guastatoya	1-2 L	2-0 W
Coban Imperial	1-1 D	0-2 L
Marquense	0-0 D	0-1 L
Deportivo Mixco	2-0 W	1-0 W
CSD Municipal	0-0 D	2-2 D
Antigua GFC	4-3 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo San Pedro

WDWDDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/10	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
11/10	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
04/10	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
26/09	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
13/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
07/09	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/08	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	3-1	4-3	0	6	W

Malacateco

LWLDWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/10	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
11/10	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	5	7	W
03/10	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
27/09	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
21/09	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
14/09	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
11/09	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
06/09	Suchitepequez Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	9	7	W
31/08	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo San Pedro vs Malacateco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo San Pedro win (53%). Probabilities: Deportivo San Pedro 53%, draw 27%, Malacateco 19%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo San Pedro vs Malacateco?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Deportivo San Pedro 1.5 · Malacateco 0.79), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo San Pedro vs Malacateco?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.