Football · Spain La Liga · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Malaga vs Racing Santander

Team pages: Malaga · Racing Santander

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Malaga1.64

Racing Santander1.5

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Malaga Draw Racing Santander

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Malaga 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLLDLD

Racing Santander 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Malaga 0–3–3 Racing Santander (6 last)

Malaga1-1Racing Santander
Racing Santander3-0Malaga
Racing Santander2-1Malaga
Malaga0-0Racing Santander
Malaga0-1Racing Santander
Racing Santander0-0Malaga

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malaga 1454 · Racing Santander 1467

	Malaga	Draw	Racing Santander
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	40%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Racing Santander: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malaga	Racing Santander
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.10

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 13:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.42
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.51
2	3.25 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.84 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:21 +1’	2.05	3.60	3.25
22:04 +14’	2.15▲	3.60	3.00▼
08:10 +5’	2.30▲	3.50▼	2.80▼
13:20 +12’	2.35▲	3.50	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:35 +42’	2.44	3.50	2.74
22:33 +44’	2.46▲	3.54▲	2.77▲
00:12 +15’	2.32▼	3.54	2.97▲
01:07 +14’	2.42▲	3.51▼	2.84▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Malaga 0–3–3 Racing Santander

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Spain Segunda	Malaga	1-1 HT 1-0	Racing Santander
05/10/25 Spain Segunda	Racing Santander	3-0 HT 0-0	Malaga
01/02/25 Spain Segunda	Racing Santander	2-1 HT 2-1	Malaga
23/11/24 Spain Segunda	Malaga	0-0 HT 0-0	Racing Santander
05/03/23 Spain Segunda	Malaga	0-1 HT 0-0	Racing Santander
01/10/22 Spain Segunda	Racing Santander	0-0 HT 0-0	Malaga

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malaga	Racing Santander
CD Alaves	1-1 D	2-1 W
Espanyol	1-1 D	2-1 W
Getafe	0-1 L	0-1 L
Villarreal	1-3 L	2-2 D
Celta Vigo	1-1 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Racing Santander (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malaga

LDLDDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/10	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	4	2	L
09/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	8	9	D
20/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
17/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
13/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
30/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
24/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
19/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L

Racing Santander

DLWLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
18/10	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
11/10	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
19/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	3	7	L
16/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-4	2-7	0	5	L
12/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
05/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Elche Spain La Liga	3-0	3-2	5	3	W
23/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	2-2	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malaga vs Racing Santander?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malaga win (40%). Probabilities: Malaga 40%, draw 26%, Racing Santander 34%.

How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Racing Santander?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Malaga 1.64 · Racing Santander 1.5), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Malaga vs Racing Santander?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.