Football · Spain La Liga · 08/11, 18:30

Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Levante

Team pages: Celta Vigo · Levante

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Celta Vigo1.67

Levante1.04

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Celta Vigo Draw Levante

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Celta Vigo 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLLDDDWDWD

Levante 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLDDWL

Head-to-head

Celta Vigo 3–2–1 Levante (6 last)

Celta Vigo2-3Levante
Levante1-2Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-1Levante
Levante0-2Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo2-0Levante
Levante1-1Celta Vigo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celta Vigo 1504 · Levante 1477

	Celta Vigo	Draw	Levante
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	51%	27%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Celta Vigo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celta Vigo	Levante
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.8	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:22	1.83	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:31 +47’	1.79	3.72	4.22
22:30 +47’	1.84▲	3.79▲	4.07▼
06:19 +55’	1.83▼	3.81▲	4.11▲
20:20 +19’	1.81▼	3.92▲	4.10▼
12:52 +24’	1.78▼	3.95▲	4.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Celta Vigo 3–2–1 Levante

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-3 HT 1-1	Levante
02/11/25 Spain La Liga	Levante	1-2 HT 0-1	Celta Vigo
21/02/22 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-1 HT 0-0	Levante
21/09/21 Spain La Liga	Levante	0-2 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
30/04/21 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	2-0 HT 0-0	Levante
26/10/20 Spain La Liga	Levante	1-1 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Levante
Real Betis	0-0 D	5-2 W
Malaga	1-1 D	0-0 D
Real Sociedad	0-0 D	1-2 L
Athletic Bilbao	0-2 L	3-1 W
Osasuna	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Levante (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celta Vigo

DLLDDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
11/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
13/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
03/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
22/08	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Levante

LDWDLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
21/10	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
16/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	3-3	5	8	D
20/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
13/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	2-4	3	2	L
06/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
29/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-2	5-2	5	2	W
24/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
16/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celta Vigo vs Levante?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celta Vigo win (51%). Probabilities: Celta Vigo 51%, draw 27%, Levante 22%.

How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Levante?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Celta Vigo 1.67 · Levante 1.04), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.