Football · Spain La Liga · 07/11, 21:00

Prediction: Valencia vs Real Madrid

Team pages: Valencia · Real Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Valencia0.91

Real Madrid2.16

1X2

14% 20% 65%

Valencia Draw Real Madrid

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Valencia 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLDDL

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Valencia 1–1–4 Real Madrid (6 last)

Valencia0-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4-0Valencia
Real Madrid1-2Valencia
Valencia1-2Real Madrid
Valencia2-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid5-1Valencia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valencia 1411 · Real Madrid 1640

	Valencia	Draw	Real Madrid
Our model	14%	21%	65%
Market	15%	19%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1411 vs 1640).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valencia	Real Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.2	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.75

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 6.25▼	Bet365 6.25
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Pinn 5.44 ★
2	1.33 → 1.40▲	Pinn 1.41

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 8.5% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:18 +3’	7.50	5.00	1.33
08:12 +2’	6.25▼	4.75▼	1.40▲
20:37 +2’	6.25	4.75	1.42▲
22:47 +12’	6.25	4.75	1.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +6’	7.56	5.46	1.32
22:32 +45’	7.39▼	5.42▼	1.35▲
06:19 +55’	6.79▼	5.19▼	1.39▲
11:00 +19’	6.68▼	5.14▼	1.40▲
12:15 +5’	7.05▲	5.25▲	1.38▼
19:33 +10’	6.73▼	5.13▼	1.40▲
20:30 +9’	6.28▼	5.11▼	1.42▲
08:02 +24’	6.13▼	5.03▼	1.44▲
10:00 +33’	6.26▲	5.08▲	1.43▼
11:37 +20’	6.39▲	5.13▲	1.42▼
12:51 +26’	5.63▼	5.25▲	1.45▲
15:06	5.79▲	5.31▲	1.44▼
22:45 +14’	6.03▲	5.41▲	1.41▼
23:46 +60’	6.08▲	5.44▲	1.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valencia 1–1–4 Real Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Spain La Liga	Valencia	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Madrid
01/11/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-0 HT 3-0	Valencia
05/04/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	1-2 HT 0-1	Valencia
03/01/25 Spain La Liga	Valencia	1-2 HT 1-0	Real Madrid
02/03/24 Spain La Liga	Valencia	2-2 HT 2-1	Real Madrid
11/11/23 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	5-1 HT 2-0	Valencia

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valencia	Real Madrid
Villarreal	1-2 L	1-0 W
Real Sociedad	2-3 L	4-1 W
Sevilla	0-1 L	4-1 W
Barcelona	0-5 L	2-1 W
Real Betis	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valencia

DLLLLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	6	9	L
17/10	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
11/10	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
20/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-1	2-3	7	5	L
15/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
11/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
06/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
30/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
25/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
22/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

Real Madrid

WWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
18/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
10/10	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	9	8	W
20/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
15/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W
22/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Madrid win (65%). Probabilities: Valencia 14%, draw 20%, Real Madrid 65%.

How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Valencia 0.91 · Real Madrid 2.16), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.