Football · Spain La Liga · 08/11, 18:30

Prediction: Villarreal vs Getafe

Team pages: Villarreal · Getafe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Villarreal1.99

Getafe0.86

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Villarreal Draw Getafe

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Villarreal 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWWLDW

Getafe 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLWLDL

Head-to-head

Villarreal 2–3–1 Getafe (6 last)

Getafe2-1Villarreal
Villarreal2-0Getafe
Getafe1-2Villarreal
Villarreal1-1Getafe
Villarreal1-1Getafe
Getafe0-0Villarreal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villarreal 1536 · Getafe 1439

	Villarreal	Draw	Getafe
Our model	63%	23%	14%
Market	63%	23%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villarreal (rating 1536 vs 1439).
H2H favours Villarreal: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villarreal	Getafe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.3	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	5.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.48▼	Bet365 1.48
X	3.80 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.37 ★
2	5.00 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.68

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:18	1.61	3.80	5.00
08:10 +5’	1.50▼	4.00▲	6.00▲
09:09 +9’	1.48▼	4.10▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:41 +37’	1.46	4.32	6.49
22:30 +48’	1.50▲	4.25▼	6.40▼
00:02 +25’	1.53▲	4.21▼	6.07▼
06:19 +55’	1.52▼	4.24▲	6.13▲
08:17 +2’	1.48▼	4.35▲	6.60▲
05:17 +8’	1.47▼	4.37▲	6.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villarreal 2–3–1 Getafe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Spain La Liga	Getafe	2-1 HT 1-0	Villarreal
06/12/25 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	2-0 HT 1-0	Getafe
30/03/25 Spain La Liga	Getafe	1-2 HT 1-2	Villarreal
20/10/24 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	1-1 HT 1-0	Getafe
16/02/24 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	1-1 HT 0-1	Getafe
30/09/23 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-0 HT 0-0	Villarreal

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villarreal	Getafe
Malaga	3-1 W	1-0 W
Real Betis	1-2 L	0-1 L
Deportivo A Coruna	2-3 L	1-1 D
CD Alaves	0-1 L	0-3 L
Racing Santander	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villarreal

DDLLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	9	9	W
17/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
10/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
20/09	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
17/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	2-1	3-1	8	6	W
14/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	7	1	L
05/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
28/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
16/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	2-2	10	6	D

Getafe

LWLDDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
19/10	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
10/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
20/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
23/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
15/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villarreal vs Getafe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villarreal win (63%). Probabilities: Villarreal 63%, draw 23%, Getafe 14%.

How many goals are expected in Villarreal vs Getafe?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Villarreal 1.99 · Getafe 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Getafe?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.