Football · Spain La Liga · 08/11, 21:00
Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Team pages: Atletico Madrid · Barcelona
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Atletico Madrid1.34
Barcelona1.96
1X2
Atletico Madrid
Draw
Barcelona
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Madrid
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Barcelona
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Madrid
2–4
Barcelona
(6 last)
- Atletico Madrid1-2Barcelona
- Barcelona0-2Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid1-2Barcelona
- Barcelona3-0Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid4-0Barcelona
- Barcelona3-1Atletico Madrid
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Madrid 1590 · Barcelona 1633
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Market | 26% | 23% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1590 vs 1633).
- H2H favours Barcelona: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.8 | 4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6 | 3.6 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Madrid 2–0–4 Barcelona
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/26 UEFA Champions League | Atletico Madrid | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Barcelona |
| 08/04/26 UEFA Champions League | Barcelona | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 04/04/26 Spain La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Barcelona |
| 03/03/26 Spain Copa del Rey | Barcelona | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 12/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey | Atletico Madrid | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Barcelona |
| 02/12/25 Spain La Liga | Barcelona | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Madrid |
Standings · Spain La Liga
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | CD Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo A Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 11 |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 19 | 10 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 10 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 9 |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Athletic Bilbao | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Sevilla | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Madrid
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/10 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Sociedad Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 19/08 | Malaga Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Barcelona
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/09 | Racing Santander Spain La Liga |
4-1 | 7-2 | 18 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Levante Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
2-1 | 5-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 27/08 | Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Elche Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Barcelona win (51%). Probabilities: Atletico Madrid 26%, draw 23%, Barcelona 51%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Atletico Madrid 1.34 · Barcelona 1.96), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.