Football · Spain La Liga · 08/11, 16:15

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Team pages: Real Sociedad · Rayo Vallecano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Real Sociedad2.19

Rayo Vallecano1.45

1X2

53% 24% 24%

Real Sociedad Draw Rayo Vallecano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWLWWW

Rayo Vallecano 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad 1–3–2 Rayo Vallecano (6 last)

Rayo Vallecano3-3Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad0-1Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano2-2Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad3-1Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad1-2Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad0-0Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad 1550 · Rayo Vallecano 1464

	Real Sociedad	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
Our model	53%	22%	24%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad (rating 1550 vs 1464).
H2H favours Rayo Vallecano: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.8	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.22

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +14’	1.80	3.70	4.10
08:07 +8’	1.85▲	3.60▼	3.90▼
17:33 +13’	1.80▼	3.70▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:31 +47’	1.84	3.80	3.89
22:30 +48’	1.85▲	3.85▲	3.94▲
20:12 +27’	1.85	3.85	3.95▲
16:18 +20’	1.77▼	3.95▲	4.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad 1–3–2 Rayo Vallecano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	3-3 HT 1-1	Real Sociedad
05/10/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	0-1 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
16/03/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	2-2 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad
16/01/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Sociedad	3-1 HT 2-1	Rayo Vallecano
18/08/24 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	1-2 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
27/01/24 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	0-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	9	0	1	40	11	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	8	1	1	20	8	25
3	Real Madrid	10	8	0	2	25	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	6	2	2	16	14	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	6	1	3	19	18	19
6	Sevilla	10	5	2	3	16	16	17
7	CD Alaves	10	3	3	4	14	11	12
8	Athletic Bilbao	9	3	3	3	12	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	2	6	2	10	7	12
10	Villarreal	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
11	Deportivo A Coruna	10	2	5	3	13	13	11
12	Osasuna	10	3	2	5	10	20	11
13	Racing Santander	10	3	2	5	15	26	11
14	Levante	10	2	4	4	16	19	10
15	Elche	10	2	4	4	14	17	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	2	3	4	12	20	9
17	Getafe	10	2	3	5	5	15	9
18	Espanyol	10	2	2	6	12	14	8
19	Valencia	10	1	3	6	7	17	6
20	Malaga	10	0	5	5	7	19	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Rayo Vallecano
Elche	3-2 W	0-3 L
Espanyol	2-1 W	2-1 W
Real Madrid	1-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Sociedad (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad

DLLWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Malaga Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	5	2	W
11/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	5	W
20/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	9	3	L
07/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	6	W
03/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
29/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
21/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D

Rayo Vallecano

WLDLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
19/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	8	10	D
19/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
12/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
05/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	9	6	W
31/08	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-2	2-5	5	1	L
20/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad win (53%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad 53%, draw 24%, Rayo Vallecano 24%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Real Sociedad 2.19 · Rayo Vallecano 1.45), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.