Football · Spain La Liga · 22/11, 16:15

Prediction: Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad

Team pages: Racing Santander · Real Sociedad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

Racing Santander1.73

Real Sociedad2.04

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Racing Santander Draw Real Sociedad

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Racing Santander 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLWL

Real Sociedad 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Racing Santander 1–1–0 Real Sociedad (2 last)

Real Sociedad1-1Racing Santander
Real Sociedad0-1Racing Santander

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Racing Santander 1476 · Real Sociedad 1533

	Racing Santander	Draw	Real Sociedad
Our model	32%	23%	45%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Sociedad (rating 1476 vs 1533).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Racing Santander	Real Sociedad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.7	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	3.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.16

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:42 +5’	3.00	3.75	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +14’	3.10	3.98	2.06
16:34 +5’	3.13▲	4.03▲	2.08▲
18:51 +6’	2.98▼	4.00▼	2.16▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Santander 1–1–0 Real Sociedad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Real Sociedad	1-1 HT 1-0	Racing Santander
20/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Real Sociedad	0-1 HT 0-1	Racing Santander

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	27
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	19
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	17	19	17
7	Athletic Bilbao	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Deportivo A Coruna	11	3	5	3	15	14	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
11	CD Alaves	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	12
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	13	14	11
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	11	22	11
16	Racing Santander	11	3	2	6	15	29	11
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	8	17	9
20	Malaga	11	0	5	6	8	21	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Racing Santander	Real Sociedad
Real Madrid	0-3 L	1-4 L
Espanyol	2-1 W	2-1 W
Valencia	2-2 D	3-2 W
Celta Vigo	0-5 L	0-0 D
Elche	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Sociedad (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Racing Santander

LWLWLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	0-3	4	2	L
24/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
18/10	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
11/10	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
19/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-2	0-5	3	7	L
16/09	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-4	2-7	0	5	L
12/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
05/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Elche Spain La Liga	3-0	3-2	5	3	W
23/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L

Real Sociedad

LWDWLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
25/10	Levante Spain La Liga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
18/10	Malaga Spain La Liga	2-0	5-2	5	2	W
11/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	5	W
20/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-0	3-2	5	5	W
13/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	9	3	L
07/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	7	6	W
03/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
29/08	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-4	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Sociedad win (44%). Probabilities: Racing Santander 32%, draw 24%, Real Sociedad 44%.

How many goals are expected in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?

The model expects 3.77 goals (Racing Santander 1.73 · Real Sociedad 2.04), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.