Football · Spain La Liga · 21/11, 21:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo

Team pages: Real Madrid · Celta Vigo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Real Madrid2.44

Celta Vigo0.6

1X2

78% 16% 7%

Real Madrid Draw Celta Vigo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWWW

Celta Vigo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Real Madrid 4–1–1 Celta Vigo (6 last)

Celta Vigo1-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid0-2Celta Vigo
Real Madrid3-2Celta Vigo
Real Madrid2-2Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo1-2Real Madrid
Real Madrid4-0Celta Vigo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1645 · Celta Vigo 1474

	Real Madrid	Draw	Celta Vigo
Our model	77%	16%	7%
Market	78%	15%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1645 vs 1474).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.2	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.25

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.252.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 02:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.20▼	Bet365 1.20
X	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 7.47 ★
2	11.00 → 13.00▲	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:32 +2’	1.22	6.25	11.00
13:34 +3’	1.17▼	6.50▲	15.00▲
17:25 +6’	1.17	7.00▲	17.00▲
06:11 +4’	1.22▲	5.75▼	12.00▼
15:38 +2’	1.20▼	6.25▲	13.00▲
16:29 +9’	1.18▼	6.50▲	15.00▲
02:37 +2’	1.20▲	6.25▼	13.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +15’	1.19	7.28	10.91
16:33 +6’	1.20▲	7.47▲	11.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 4–1–1 Celta Vigo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-2 HT 1-1	Real Madrid
07/12/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	0-2 HT 0-0	Celta Vigo
04/05/25 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	3-2 HT 2-0	Celta Vigo
16/01/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Madrid	2-2 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo
19/10/24 Spain La Liga	Celta Vigo	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Madrid
10/03/24 Spain La Liga	Real Madrid	4-0 HT 1-0	Celta Vigo

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	27
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	19
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	17	19	17
7	Athletic Bilbao	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Deportivo A Coruna	11	3	5	3	15	14	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
11	CD Alaves	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	12
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	13	14	11
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	11	22	11
16	Racing Santander	11	3	2	6	15	29	11
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	8	17	9
20	Malaga	11	0	5	6	8	21	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Celta Vigo
Racing Santander	3-0 W	5-0 W
Elche	3-2 W	0-0 D
Rayo Vallecano	4-1 W	0-3 L
Real Betis	0-1 L	0-0 D
Malaga	4-0 W	1-1 D
Real Sociedad	4-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

WWLWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
25/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
18/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
10/10	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	9	8	W
20/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
15/09	Elche Spain La Liga	2-0	3-2	5	6	W
12/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	3-0	4-1	11	1	W
04/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	6	L
30/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
26/08	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	1-1	4-1	4	6	W

Celta Vigo

LLDDDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
25/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
18/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
11/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	3	7	W
13/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
07/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
03/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Madrid win (78%). Probabilities: Real Madrid 78%, draw 16%, Celta Vigo 7%.

How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Real Madrid 2.44 · Celta Vigo 0.6), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.