Football · Spain La Liga · 22/11, 14:00

Prediction: Barcelona vs Villarreal

Team pages: Barcelona · Villarreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

Barcelona3.19

Villarreal1.19

1X2

76% 14% 10%

Barcelona Draw Villarreal

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Barcelona 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWLW

Villarreal 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLDWL

Head-to-head

Barcelona 4–2 Villarreal (6 last)

Barcelona4-1Villarreal
Villarreal0-2Barcelona
Barcelona2-3Villarreal
Villarreal1-5Barcelona
Barcelona3-5Villarreal
Villarreal3-4Barcelona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barcelona 1663 · Villarreal 1477

	Barcelona	Draw	Villarreal
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	77%	13%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1663 vs 1477).
H2H favours Barcelona: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barcelona	Villarreal
Goals for / against (FT)	4.1 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.4	4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.20

X7.00

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.02

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 8.27 ★
2	9.50 → 9.50	Pinn 9.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:44 +3’	1.20	7.00	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +15’	1.19	8.04	9.62
16:32 +7’	1.19▲	8.27▲	9.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona 4–0–2 Villarreal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	4-1 HT 2-0	Villarreal
21/12/25 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	0-2 HT 0-1	Barcelona
18/05/25 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	2-3 HT 2-1	Villarreal
22/09/24 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	1-5 HT 1-2	Barcelona
27/01/24 Spain La Liga	Barcelona	3-5 HT 0-1	Villarreal
27/08/23 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	3-4 HT 2-2	Barcelona

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	27
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	19
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	17	19	17
7	Athletic Bilbao	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Deportivo A Coruna	11	3	5	3	15	14	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
11	CD Alaves	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	12
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	13	14	11
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	11	22	11
16	Racing Santander	11	3	2	6	15	29	11
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	8	17	9
20	Malaga	11	0	5	6	8	21	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barcelona	Villarreal
CD Alaves	6-1 W	0-1 L
Real Madrid	1-2 L	0-1 L
Real Betis	5-2 W	1-2 L
Levante	4-2 W	3-1 W
Valencia	5-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barcelona (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barcelona

WWWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	4-0	6-1	3	5	W
25/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
17/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	2-1	5-2	5	6	W
10/10	Getafe Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
19/09	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-1	3-1	3	1	W
16/09	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	4-1	7-2	18	5	W
13/09	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	4-2	5	2	W
06/09	Valencia Spain La Liga	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
31/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	2-1	5-2	9	1	W
27/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	12	3	W

Villarreal

DLLLWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
24/10	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	9	9	W
17/10	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
10/10	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
20/09	Levante Spain La Liga	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
17/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	2-1	3-1	8	6	W
14/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	7	1	L
05/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-1	2-3	7	4	L
28/08	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
23/08	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Villarreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona win (76%). Probabilities: Barcelona 76%, draw 14%, Villarreal 10%.

How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Villarreal?

The model expects 4.39 goals (Barcelona 3.19 · Villarreal 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Villarreal?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.