Football · Spain La Liga · 22/11, 21:00

Prediction: Getafe vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: Getafe · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Getafe0.75

Atletico Madrid1.58

1X2

17% 26% 57%

Getafe Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Getafe 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWLDLW

Atletico Madrid 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Getafe 1–5 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Atletico Madrid4-1Getafe
Atletico Madrid1-0Getafe
Getafe0-1Atletico Madrid
Getafe2-1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid5-0Getafe
Atletico Madrid1-0Getafe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Getafe 1474 · Atletico Madrid 1598

	Getafe	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	16%	27%	56%
Market	18%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Madrid (rating 1474 vs 1598).
H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Getafe	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.70

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 15:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.53 ★
X	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.80
2	1.73 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.65

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:30 +4’	4.75	3.50	1.73
13:33 +4’	5.50▲	3.70▲	1.61▼
17:25 +5’	6.00▲	3.80▲	1.55▼
06:02 +13’	5.00▼	3.60▼	1.67▲
15:38 +2’	5.25▲	3.70▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +8’	5.44	3.80	1.62
16:06 +32’	5.54▲	3.85▲	1.63▲
21:11 +28’	5.53▼	3.80▼	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Getafe 1–0–5 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/07/26 Elite Club Friendlies	Atletico Madrid	4-1 HT 2-1	Getafe
14/03/26 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 1-0	Getafe
23/11/25 Spain La Liga	Getafe	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
09/03/25 Spain La Liga	Getafe	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Madrid
04/02/25 Spain Copa del Rey	Atletico Madrid	5-0 HT 3-0	Getafe
15/12/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Getafe

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	27
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	19
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	17	19	17
7	Athletic Bilbao	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Deportivo A Coruna	11	3	5	3	15	14	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
11	CD Alaves	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	12
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	13	14	11
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	11	22	11
16	Racing Santander	11	3	2	6	15	29	11
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	8	17	9
20	Malaga	11	0	5	6	8	21	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Getafe	Atletico Madrid
Sevilla	3-1 W	3-1 W
Athletic Bilbao	0-4 L	0-3 L
Deportivo A Coruna	1-1 D	1-0 W
Osasuna	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Madrid (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Getafe

WLDDLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	3-1	2	6	W
25/10	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
19/10	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
10/10	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
20/09	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/09	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
07/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/08	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
23/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Atletico Madrid

DWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Levante Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
24/10	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	12	7	W
10/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
20/09	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
16/09	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
13/09	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	0-3	8	1	L
29/08	Sevilla Spain La Liga	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/08	Villarreal Spain La Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Getafe vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (57%). Probabilities: Getafe 17%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 57%.

How many goals are expected in Getafe vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Getafe 0.75 · Atletico Madrid 1.58), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.