Football · Spain La Liga · 22/11, 18:30

Prediction: Osasuna vs Malaga

Team pages: Osasuna · Malaga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Osasuna1.82

Malaga1.07

1X2

54% 26% 21%

Osasuna Draw Malaga

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Osasuna 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Malaga 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DLDDLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Osasuna 2–2–0 Malaga (4 last)

Malaga1-2Osasuna
Osasuna2-1Malaga
Osasuna1-1Malaga
Malaga1-1Osasuna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Osasuna 1475 · Malaga 1462

	Osasuna	Draw	Malaga
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Osasuna: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Osasuna	Malaga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.9	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.75
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.68

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:30 +4’	1.70	3.70	4.75
05:14 +3’	1.75▲	3.60▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +14’	1.74	3.70	4.61
16:34 +5’	1.75▲	3.75▲	4.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Osasuna 2–2–0 Malaga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/03/19 Spain Segunda	Malaga	1-2 HT 1-0	Osasuna
03/11/18 Spain Segunda	Osasuna	2-1 HT 0-1	Malaga
27/01/17 Spain La Liga	Osasuna	1-1 HT 0-0	Malaga
19/08/16 Spain La Liga	Malaga	1-1 HT 0-0	Osasuna

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barcelona	11	10	0	1	46	12	30
2	Atletico Madrid	11	9	1	1	22	8	28
3	Real Madrid	11	9	0	2	28	10	27
4	Real Betis	11	7	2	2	18	15	23
5	Real Sociedad	11	6	1	4	20	20	19
6	Sevilla	11	5	2	4	17	19	17
7	Athletic Bilbao	10	4	3	3	14	10	15
8	Deportivo A Coruna	11	3	5	3	15	14	14
9	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	15	15	12
10	Celta Vigo	11	2	6	3	10	10	12
11	CD Alaves	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	Rayo Vallecano	10	3	3	4	15	20	12
13	Getafe	11	3	3	5	8	16	12
14	Espanyol	11	3	2	6	13	14	11
15	Osasuna	11	3	2	6	11	22	11
16	Racing Santander	11	3	2	6	15	29	11
17	Elche	11	2	4	5	14	18	10
18	Levante	11	2	4	5	16	21	10
19	Valencia	11	2	3	6	8	17	9
20	Malaga	11	0	5	6	8	21	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Osasuna	Malaga
Deportivo A Coruna	1-2 L	1-1 D
Real Betis	2-5 L	1-2 L
Espanyol	0-2 L	1-1 D
CD Alaves	2-5 L	1-1 D
Getafe	1-0 W	0-1 L
Celta Vigo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Malaga (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Osasuna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
26/10	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
18/10	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
11/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	4	7	L
19/09	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/09	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-4	0	3	L
12/09	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
06/09	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	1	3	L
31/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
27/08	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	3	2	W

Malaga

DLDDLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/10	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/10	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-2	2-5	4	2	L
09/10	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	8	9	D
20/09	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
17/09	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-2	1-3	4	6	L
13/09	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/09	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
30/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-3	0-4	6	2	L
24/08	Deportivo A Coruna Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Osasuna vs Malaga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Osasuna win (54%). Probabilities: Osasuna 54%, draw 26%, Malaga 21%.

How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Malaga?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Osasuna 1.82 · Malaga 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Malaga?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.