Football · Spain La Liga · 20/08, 21:00

Prediction: Rayo Vallecano vs CD Alaves

Team pages: Rayo Vallecano · CD Alaves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Rayo Vallecano1.24

CD Alaves0.84

1X2

45% 30% 25%

Rayo Vallecano Draw CD Alaves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Rayo Vallecano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLLWL

CD Alaves 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLDWWD

Head-to-head

Rayo Vallecano 4–2 CD Alaves (6 last)

CD Alaves1-2Rayo Vallecano
CD Alaves2-0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves0-2Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano1-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-0Rayo Vallecano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rayo Vallecano 1496 · CD Alaves 1518

	Rayo Vallecano	Draw	CD Alaves
Our model	44%	32%	24%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rayo Vallecano: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rayo Vallecano	CD Alaves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.10

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +2’	2.05	3.25	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rayo Vallecano 4–0–2 CD Alaves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-2 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano
14/01/26 Spain Copa del Rey	CD Alaves	2-0 HT 0-0	Rayo Vallecano
26/10/25 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
29/03/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	0-2 HT 0-1	Rayo Vallecano
26/10/24 Spain La Liga	Rayo Vallecano	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
10/03/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-0 HT 1-0	Rayo Vallecano

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Athletic Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Elche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Alaves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Levante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Rayo Vallecano

WDDWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Ipswich Elite Club Friendlies	0-3	0-3	6	0	L
01/08	Charleroi Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-2	1	7	W
26/07	Feyenoord Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
17/07	Hearts Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	3	0	L
27/05	Crystal Palace UEFA Conference League	0-0	0-1	1	9	L
23/05	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
14/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
11/05	Girona Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
07/05	Strasbourg UEFA Conference League	1-0	1-0	6	5	W

CD Alaves

WLDWWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Racing Santander Elite Club Friendlies	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
31/07	CD Castellon Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
25/07	Girona Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
18/07	Eibar Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/05	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
02/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-4	4	6	L
25/04	Mallorca Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rayo Vallecano vs CD Alaves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rayo Vallecano win (45%). Probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 30%, CD Alaves 25%.

How many goals are expected in Rayo Vallecano vs CD Alaves?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Rayo Vallecano 1.24 · CD Alaves 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs CD Alaves?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.