Football · Spain La Liga · 28/08, 21:30

Prediction: CD Alaves vs Villarreal

Team pages: CD Alaves · Villarreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

CD Alaves1.37

Villarreal1.48

1X2

34% 27% 39%

CD Alaves Draw Villarreal

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Alaves 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWWLWD

Villarreal 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWDLLWD

Head-to-head

CD Alaves 1–3–2 Villarreal (6 last)

CD Alaves1-1Villarreal
Villarreal3-1CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-0Villarreal
Villarreal3-0CD Alaves
CD Alaves1-1Villarreal
Villarreal1-1CD Alaves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Alaves 1533 · Villarreal 1540

	CD Alaves	Draw	Villarreal
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Villarreal: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Alaves	Villarreal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.58 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +7’	2.75	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:22 +2’	2.58	3.50	2.58

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Alaves 1–3–2 Villarreal

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 1-0	Villarreal
10/01/26 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	3-1 HT 0-0	CD Alaves
08/03/25 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-0 HT 1-0	Villarreal
09/11/24 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	3-0 HT 1-0	CD Alaves
10/02/24 Spain La Liga	CD Alaves	1-1 HT 1-1	Villarreal
22/10/23 Spain La Liga	Villarreal	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Alaves

Standings · Spain La Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	CD Alaves	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
3	Espanyol	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	Atletico Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Racing Santander	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Elche	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Deportivo A Coruna	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Athletic Bilbao	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	Malaga	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
19	Levante	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Alaves	Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano	1-1 D	0-2 L
Oviedo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Athletic Bilbao	2-4 L	2-1 W
Mallorca	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Alaves (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Alaves

DLWLDWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
15/08	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
23/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
17/05	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/05	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
09/05	Elche Spain La Liga	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
02/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	2-4	4	6	L
25/04	Mallorca Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
21/04	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
11/04	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	2-2	3-3	5	6	D

Villarreal

LWDWWDLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Racing Santander Spain La Liga	2-2	2-2	10	6	D
24/05	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	4-1	5-1	5	1	W
17/05	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
13/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	6	3	L
10/05	Mallorca Spain La Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
02/05	Levante Spain La Liga	1-0	5-1	7	4	W
26/04	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	7	8	W
23/04	Oviedo Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	0	2	D
12/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/04	Girona Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Alaves vs Villarreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Villarreal win (39%). Probabilities: CD Alaves 34%, draw 27%, Villarreal 39%.

How many goals are expected in CD Alaves vs Villarreal?

The model expects 2.86 goals (CD Alaves 1.37 · Villarreal 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Alaves vs Villarreal?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.