Prediction: Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao
Team pages: Barcelona · Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao0-1Barcelona
- Barcelona5-0Athletic Bilbao
- Barcelona4-0Athletic Bilbao
- Athletic Bilbao0-3Barcelona
- Athletic Bilbao0-2Barcelona
- Barcelona2-1Athletic Bilbao
| Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 19% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barcelona (rating 1629 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Barcelona: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barcelona | Athletic Bilbao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.9 | 3.2 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barcelona 6–0–0 Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Barcelona |
| 07/01/26 Spain Super Cup | Barcelona | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 22/11/25 Spain La Liga | Barcelona | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 25/05/25 Spain La Liga | Athletic Bilbao | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Barcelona |
| 08/01/25 Spain Super Cup | Athletic Bilbao | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Barcelona |
| 24/08/24 Spain La Liga | Barcelona | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Athletic Bilbao |
Standings · Spain La Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | CD Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Racing Santander | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Elche | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Deportivo A Coruna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barcelona | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| CD Alaves | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| Real Madrid | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Osasuna | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Getafe | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Celta Vigo | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Espanyol | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Atletico Madrid | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Barcelona (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barcelona
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Real Betis Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 04/04 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 22/03 | Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Athletic Bilbao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Sevilla Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Real Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Celta Vigo Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Espanyol Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Valencia Spain La Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | CD Alaves Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 21/04 | Osasuna Spain La Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Villarreal Spain La Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 15 | 5 | L |
| 05/04 | Getafe Spain La Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barcelona win (69%). Probabilities: Barcelona 69%, draw 19%, Athletic Bilbao 12%.
How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Barcelona 2.44 · Athletic Bilbao 0.97), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.