Football · Spain La Liga · 29/08, 21:30

Prediction: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid

Team pages: Sevilla · Atletico Madrid

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Sevilla1.1

Atletico Madrid1.44

1X2

28% 28% 44%

Sevilla Draw Atletico Madrid

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sevilla 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLLWW

Atletico Madrid 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Sevilla 2–4 Atletico Madrid (6 last)

Sevilla2-1Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid3-0Sevilla
Sevilla1-2Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid4-3Sevilla
Sevilla1-0Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid1-0Sevilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sevilla 1553 · Atletico Madrid 1520

	Sevilla	Draw	Atletico Madrid
Our model	27%	29%	44%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Madrid: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sevilla	Atletico Madrid
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.59 ★
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.38 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:54 +58’	2.80	3.30	2.38
16:41 +4’	3.30▲	3.50▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +10’	3.49	3.40	2.08
20:28	3.59▲	3.48▲	2.06▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sevilla 2–0–4 Atletico Madrid

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	2-1 HT 2-1	Atletico Madrid
01/11/25 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	3-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla
06/04/25 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Madrid
08/12/24 Spain La Liga	Atletico Madrid	4-3 HT 1-2	Sevilla
11/02/24 Spain La Liga	Sevilla	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Madrid
25/01/24 Spain Copa del Rey	Atletico Madrid	1-0 HT 0-0	Sevilla

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	CD Alaves	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
3	Espanyol	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	Atletico Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Racing Santander	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Elche	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Deportivo A Coruna	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Athletic Bilbao	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	Malaga	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
19	Levante	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sevilla	Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao	3-1 W	3-2 W
Celta Vigo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Villarreal	3-2 W	1-5 L
Osasuna	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sevilla (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sevilla

WLLWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	1-0	3-1	3	7	W
15/08	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-1	2-1	1	9	W
23/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
09/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	0-0	2-1	4	9	W
04/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
26/04	Osasuna Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/04	Levante Spain La Liga	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
11/04	Atletico Madrid Spain La Liga	2-1	2-1	6	7	W

Atletico Madrid

LLLWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Malaga Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
24/05	Villarreal Spain La Liga	1-4	1-5	9	1	L
17/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
12/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
09/05	Celta Vigo Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
02/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
25/04	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-1	3-2	3	0	W
22/04	Elche Spain La Liga	2-2	2-3	3	5	L
11/04	Sevilla Spain La Liga	1-2	1-2	6	7	L
04/04	Barcelona Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	1	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Madrid win (44%). Probabilities: Sevilla 28%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 44%.

How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Sevilla 1.1 · Atletico Madrid 1.44), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.