Football · Spain La Liga · 29/08, 19:00

Prediction: Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

Team pages: Real Sociedad · Espanyol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Real Sociedad1.8

Espanyol1.11

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Real Sociedad Draw Espanyol

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Real Sociedad 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLDDLDL

Espanyol 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Real Sociedad 4–2–0 Espanyol (6 last)

Espanyol1-1Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad2-2Espanyol
Real Sociedad2-1Espanyol
Espanyol0-1Real Sociedad
Espanyol2-3Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad2-1Espanyol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Sociedad 1438 · Espanyol 1508

	Real Sociedad	Draw	Espanyol
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Espanyol (rating 1438 vs 1508).
H2H favours Real Sociedad: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Sociedad	Espanyol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.65
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +18’	1.80	3.60	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:48 +6’	1.92	3.65	3.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Sociedad 4–2–0 Espanyol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad
24/08/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	2-2 HT 0-2	Espanyol
09/02/25 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	2-1 HT 1-0	Espanyol
24/08/24 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Sociedad
13/02/23 Spain La Liga	Espanyol	2-3 HT 0-1	Real Sociedad
18/09/22 Spain La Liga	Real Sociedad	2-1 HT 2-1	Espanyol

Standings · Spain La Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sevilla	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	CD Alaves	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
3	Espanyol	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
4	Atletico Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Racing Santander	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Elche	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	Deportivo A Coruna	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Valencia	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
13	Rayo Vallecano	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Athletic Bilbao	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
18	Malaga	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
19	Levante	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Sociedad	Espanyol
Sevilla	0-1 L	1-2 L
Rayo Vallecano	3-3 D	0-1 L
Levante	2-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Sociedad

WDLDLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/05	Espanyol Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	Valencia Spain La Liga	1-2	3-4	3	5	L
14/05	Girona Spain La Liga	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
09/05	Real Betis Spain La Liga	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
04/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
26/04	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	1-1	3-3	4	8	D
22/04	Getafe Spain La Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
11/04	CD Alaves Spain La Liga	2-2	3-3	9	6	D
04/04	Levante Spain La Liga	1-0	2-0	11	5	W

Espanyol

LLDLLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	1-1	1-2	0	6	L
16/08	Levante Spain La Liga	2-0	3-0	0	3	W
23/05	Real Sociedad Spain La Liga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Osasuna Spain La Liga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/05	Athletic Bilbao Spain La Liga	0-0	2-0	8	0	W
09/05	Sevilla Spain La Liga	0-0	1-2	6	9	L
03/05	Real Madrid Spain La Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
27/04	Levante Spain La Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
23/04	Rayo Vallecano Spain La Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/04	Barcelona Spain La Liga	0-2	1-4	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Sociedad win (52%). Probabilities: Real Sociedad 52%, draw 26%, Espanyol 22%.

How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Real Sociedad 1.8 · Espanyol 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.